Bold Predictions for the Second Half of the 2026 College Football Season

As the 2026 college football season hits its midpoint, Sports Illustrated’s staff takes a look into their crystal ball to make bold predictions for what the remaining eight weeks of the regular season will bring.

Miami at Notre Dame will be Catholics vs. Convicts II, minus the dubious racial overtones

It will be the biggest game the two programs have played against each other since the 1988 classic that launched Notre Dame to its last national championship. The teams will be undefeated, just as they were in 1988. They may be ranked Nos. 1 and 2, as they were in ’88, although Georgia will have something to say about that. They will match the nation’s No. 1 offense (Miami is averaging 555 yards per game) against the nation’s No. 1 defense (Notre Dame is allowing 214 yards per game). The setting will again be Notre Dame Stadium. The winner could all but cinch a top-four College Football Playoff seed. The loser is by no means out of it, unlike last year. May we be blessed by another 31–30 thriller decided on a late two-point conversion attempt. May we skip all the hero/villain coding that went into the ’88 game, unfairly portraying the Hurricanes. —Pat Forde

This year’s coaching carousel will be far more tame than many expect

Every college football season ends with some manner of fireworks when it comes to hiring/firing season. But as programs continue to wrestle with their ever-inflating budgets, even with some big names on the hot seat, I think we’re going to have a relatively quiet carousel.

Maryland’s Mike Locksley is probably beyond saving, and the same can likely be said for Rutgers’s Greg Schiano, but aside from their longevity at their respective programs, those moves won’t do much to shake up the sport. Mike Norvell seemed to have a path to saving himself yet again, before Florida State got run off the field by Louisville, so the Seminoles will likely have to start passing the hat to pay his huge buyout. But elsewhere, Dave Aranda’s 4–1 at Baylor. Shane Beamer (3–3) isn’t out of the woods at South Carolina but just scored a huge win against Florida. Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin (4–1) is much more competitive with the school devoting more resources last offseason. USC’s Lincoln Riley (6–1) proved he can win on the East Coast, overcoming a Penn State white out (even if the Nittany Lions are severely flawed themselves). This currently looks much more like 2024, when North Carolina was the biggest opening (and hired Bill Belichick) than last year’s Lane Kiffin sweepstakes madness. —Dan Lyons

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith — Will the best player in college football—Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith—actually not win the Heisman? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jeremiah Smith will continue to prove he’s the best player in college football, but he won’t win the Heisman

It seems like calling the Ohio State receiver the best player in the sport has transitioned from an easy-to-reference colloquialism to fully accepted formality. After just six games this season, he has nearly as many touchdowns (11) and yards (916) as he did last season (12 and 1,243, respectively). He battles a constant double team that often winds up getting an extra defender helping out in a way that makes you think opposing defensive coordinators are simply borrowing the box-and-one basketball defense in an attempt (and we do say attempt) to slow him down some.

He’s been the most outstanding player among a stellar crop of them through the first half of the season. And yet … Smith won’t take home the trophy he should have sitting on his mantle come December. Heisman voters love narratives late in the season and something says that some of the quarterbacks also involved in the stiff-arm chase (Miami’s Darian Mensah, Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, maybe Missouri’s Austin Simmons or Indiana’s Josh Hoover) will all have much bigger games on the schedule late in the year where they’ll impress enough folks to divert points away from the Buckeyes wideout. It certainly doesn’t help Smith’s cause that games against USC, Oregon and Michigan have had some gravitas taken out of them recently, so he’ll have to hope the absurd numbers and highlights Ohio State’s star puts up will have to be enough to get him over the line. —Bryan Fischer

UCLA will make the College Football Playoff with its (previously) third-string quarterback

What once would have seemed like an extreme long shot—the Bruins making the College Football Playoff—has increasingly become a possibility with each passing week, culminating with UCLA’s upset of Oregon at Autzen Stadium, the biggest win of first-year coach Bob Chesney’s Bruins tenure thus far. But the wind was taken out of the Bruins’ playoff sails when Chesney announced that starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who left the Week 6 win over the Ducks due to injury, is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

Many will write the Bruins off now, but I’m going to double down and say that they’ll make the playoff with Ty Dieffenbach, previously their third-string signal-caller, starting down the stretch. Look, Iamaleava is a former five-star recruit, but he hasn’t exactly played like it this season. His passer rating of 137.7 is slightly below average, his QBR of 28.8 was the worst among all Big Ten starting quarterbacks. Numbers aside, some of his throws, such as a missed red zone touchdown pass in the first quarter of the win over Oregon, don’t pass the eye test. While some of this can be attributed to Iamaleava still processing a new system under offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy, it’s not like we’re talking about the Bruins being without the second coming of Joe Montana for the rest of the season. Plus, Dieffenbach, who looked confident playing in a tough road environment, might just be up to the task of stepping in for Iamaleava long-term.

The strengths of this UCLA team are its opportunistic defense and its time of possession-gobbling running game. When those two phases of the game are humming, it can make life easier for any quarterback, even one who has made just nine career starts in the Big Sky and will now be playing in the Big Ten.

Chesney has shown he can establish a rock-solid culture and make players believe in a quick turnaround. Chances are, he can keep them believing despite an injury setback. Having just one remaining game against a ranked opponent will help. Many penciled in three Big Ten CFP teams entering the season (Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon). While it’s possible that Oregon’s struggles open the door for another one of the many SEC teams to snag a CFP spot, I think the Bruins will continue to surprise and weather the storm of Iamaleava’s absence into a second straight CFP berth for Chesney. —Tim Capurso

UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach celebrates after beating Oregon. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Nebraska will make the College Football Playoff

Take a walk with me through the Cornhuskers’ remaining schedule and tell me coach Matt Rhule’s team—5–1 and still being underrated after holding Indiana’s feet to the fire last Saturday—can’t make the CFP. First, the three most winnable games: bad-vibes Washington at home on Halloween, rebuilding Illinois on the road Nov. 6, and Rutgers (self-explanatory) on the road Nov. 14. Nebraska should have little trouble with that group. Now, the three potential land mines: at Oregon this Saturday, Ohio State at home Nov. 21, and Iowa on the road on Black Friday.

If the Cornhuskers take two of three, they’re probably in good shape, particularly if one of the two are the Buckeyes. Even if Nebraska loses to Ohio State: the Ducks look vulnerable irrespective of their quarterback situation, and the Cornhuskers are more than capable of stopping the Hawkeyes’ better-than-usual offense. The point is that this is a Nebraska team with no incorrigible weaknesses, and that should get the Cornhuskers in the door at No. 10 or No. 11. Not bad for an HBO actor. —Patrick Andres

Group of 6 players will lead every offensive triple crown category (passing, rushing, receiving yards and touchdowns)—except one

Attention has rightfully been paid to the likes of Smith and Mensah for the way they’ve carved up defenses in the first half of the season, but the offensive numbers being put up outside of the Power 4 also deserve some recognition. Oregon State, perhaps a CFP dark horse, has the most productive quarterback-receiver duo in the country in Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree, who have combined for 12 touchdowns in six games—one more than the combo of Julian Sayin and Smith. Both players also lead their respective counterparts in total yards with Atkinson averaging a whopping 376.2 yards per game (first in FBS by 59.6 ypg) and Legree outpacing the receiving group thanks to a baffling 24.5 yards per reception.

The rushing statistical categories are where it gets a little dicey for the G6. Boise State’s Dylan Riley holds a tenuous advantage in rushing yards (835 to Missouri RB Jamal Roberts’s 828) and that’s with Duke’s workhorse running back Nate Sheppard (743 yards) having played one fewer game. The biggest uphill battle for this prediction to come true comes in rushing touchdowns, where West Virginia quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and Florida running back Jadan Baugh lead the way with 12 touchdowns each. No G6 player has more than nine, though any of North Texas’s Jahiem White or even Memphis RB Jaylin Carter (eight) and Army quarterback Cale Hellums (eight) could make the race interesting. —Zach Koons

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