Three reasons why Nebraska will win; three reasons why Nebraska will lose vs. Iowa

It’s that time again for Nebraska. Time to make sure the next 364 days don’t haunt the Huskers.

It’s Iowa week. The rival that has won 9-of-10 games against Nebraska and 10-of-12. That clash comes on Black Friday (11 a.m. CT). Iowa is a 6.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks.

It won’t be easy. Nothing has been easy this season for Nebraska. Iowa is a handful.

Looking back

Nov. 29, 2014, was sunny and balmy in Lincoln, according to lincolnweather.unl.edu. The high temperature was 75 degrees, a record for any Nov. 29. It was a day of celebration for Husker fans after a night of celebration.

Nebraska capped off a 9-3 regular season the day before — Nov. 28, 2014 — with a 37-34 overtime victory at Iowa. In 55 meetings between the schools, it remains the only overtime game.

Ameer Abdullah led the Huskers with 106 rushing yards on 13 carries as Nebraska outscored Iowa, 17-7, in the fourth quarter, and 6-3 in overtime. It was Nebraska’s sixth win in the last seven games against Iowa. Good times.

Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah is tackled by Iowa defensive back Jordan Lomax on Nov. 28, 2014 at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

There are 4,018 days between Nov. 29, 2014, and Black Friday, 2025. In that time, the Huskers have defeated Iowa once — a 24-17 win at Iowa City on Nov. 25, 2022.

That’s a lot of time to feel haunted. That’s a long time to have beaten your rival only one time.

For every game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. Nebraska is 7-4, 4-4 in the Big Ten. Iowa is 7-4, 5-3 in the Big Ten.

Why Nebraska will win

Season’s most meaningful game

The way Nebraska’s season has played out, this is the most significant game on the schedule. A loss sinks the Huskers to 7-5, a disappointing, one-game improvement over last season’s regular-season record.

A victory over Iowa lifts the Huskers to an 8-4 record. Looks better on the ledger sheet, feels better in the heart. Puts a little pep in one’s step.

Plus, the Huskers have a chance to finally get that long-awaited win over the Hawkeyes in Lincoln, where Iowa has won six consecutive meetings.

You gotta believe Nebraska will leave everything on the field, empty the playbook, and play its best game of the season.

Emmett Johnson

Johnson did all he could in Saturday’s 37-10 loss at Penn State. He gained 103 yards on 19 carries and had a game-high eight receptions for 48 yards.

In what could be Johnson’s final game at Memorial Stadium, expect a huge performance — even against Iowa’s stingy defense. The Hawkeyes rank 14th in the nation against the run, allowing 101.6 yards per game.

Johnson has enjoyed a tremendous season. He has rushed for 1,234 yards on 222 carries (5.6 average per rush). He has 11 rushing touchdowns. Johnson also is the Huskers' leading receiver with 44 catches for 348 yards and three touchdowns.

Huskers’ pass defense

Nebraska’s pass defense has been among the very best in the nation all season. The Huskers currently rank second, allowing 138.8 yards per game.

They might have the perfect opponent in Iowa, which ranks 129th in passing offense at 134.8 yards per game.

Good pass defense starts with pressure on the quarterback, which should be a Nebraska focus this week along with stopping the Hawkeyes’ running game. Want to win a rival game? Win it on the defensive side of the ball.

Why Iowa will win

The Hawkeyes always win

The records need little amplification. Iowa has Nebraska’s number recently. That isn’t a hard-core football philosophy, proven over the decades. In the Nebraska-Iowa rivalry, recently, it’s just the way it is.

My goodness, in 2024, Nebraska outgained Iowa, 334-164, and had 20 first downs to Iowa’s five first downs. The Hawkeyes, who trailed 10-0 at halftime, and 10-3 in the fourth quarter, won on Drew Stevens’ 53-yard field goal as time expired.

Iowa kicker Drew Stevens (18) kicks the game-winning field goal against Nebraska last season in Iowa City. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa’s running attack

The Hawkeyes might have the perfect foil in Nebraska’s rushing defense. Iowa ranks 50th in the nation in rushing with 174.5 yards per game. The Huskers rank 93rd in rushing defense, allowing 167.5 yards per game.

And, Nebraska is coming off a 231-yard rushing performance by Penn State in the Nittany Lions’ 37-10 victory. Controlling the ball, holding onto the ball and keeping the chains moving might be Iowa’s path to victory.

Hawkeyes’ defense

Iowa ranks eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 14.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes also rank eighth in total defense, allowing 267.9 yards per game.

The Huskers rank 47th in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game. Nebraska’s total offense per game is 379.5 yards per game, 73rd in the nation.

Iowa players celebrate after defeating Michigan State, 20-17, last Saturday at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the last six meetings, neither team has scored more than 28 points, and that was only once. The last two games were 13-10.

Friday’s forecast calls for cloudy skies with a high of 38, a low of 23 and winds from 10 to 20 mph. Sounds like weather that favors the better defense.

The winner: The Huskers are coming off a brutal loss at Penn State. Nebraska hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season. It feels like it's time for the Huskers to end Iowa’s recent dominance. Nebraska 17, Iowa 16.

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