Nebraska Football Optimism Is Back? Really?

Somebody check on us! Team SMQ's previews Huskers vs. Maryland and offers a prediction.

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Two weeks ago, Maryland looked like a tough out. Now Nebraska is a double-digit favorite, Maryland is coming off a five-turnover disaster against UCLA, and team SMQ is trying to figure out whether we’re watching a better Nebraska team or simply enjoying the portion of the schedule that doesn’t require blood-pressure medication.

The optimism is palpable. The skepticism has retained its parking space.

Maryland’s Very Bad Week

Maryland got hammered by UCLA. Five turnovers will do that. You can have a game plan, talented players and a perfectly respectable pregame speech. Give the other team the ball five times and eventually the speech becomes, “Please stop doing that.”

But there’s a reason Matt Rhule pointed out that a handful of plays made the result look especially ugly. One disastrous afternoon doesn’t necessarily tell you everything about a football team. Maryland has shown it can score, and assuming the Terrapins will reproduce their worst performance is a wonderful way to spend Saturday yelling at your television.

It was a dreadful day in the turnovers department for Maryland last week against UCLA. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We expect some bounce back. Getting embarrassed tends to get people’s attention.

The question is how much that matters against Nebraska. Does Maryland respond with a cleaner, more competitive game? Or does the same team that self-destructed last week show up in Lincoln and discover that the accommodations aren’t getting any friendlier?

Getting smoked at home and then having to visit Memorial Stadium is a terrible itinerary. Whoever booked that trip should hear from management.

Nebraska Is Doing the Boring Things Well

Jay’s favorite number from the episode wasn’t an offensive ranking. It was one: Nebraska had turned the ball over just once all season, on a deflected pass.

That’s the kind of boring football we can get behind.

Nebraska protecting the ball while Maryland arrives off a five-turnover game is a pretty compelling contrast. It doesn’t guarantee anything Saturday. It does suggest that one team has been making its own life easier while the other recently spent an afternoon setting the furniture on fire.

The offense's third-quarter doldrums were a concern for the Huskers last week against Michigan State. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Michigan State game also gave us more reason to like the defense. Six sacks, more inventive looks and a unit that rescued the offense when it stumbled in the second half. When one side of the ball has a bad series and the other side cleans it up, you can win a lot of games.

We’re still waiting for Nebraska to consistently look ready immediately after halftime. That portion of the Michigan State game had the familiar feel of people fumbling around in the dark. The defense eventually got things sorted out, but a better opponent might not give Nebraska that much time to locate the light switch.

Still, winning while leaving things to improve beats losing while explaining how close you were. We’ve had sufficient exposure to the second option.

Good Numbers. Unfinished Evaluation.

During the show, we discussed Nebraska’s lofty defensive and offensive rankings. Jay sees a powerful combination. Bob asks “Who have they played?”

That isn’t an attempt to dismiss the start. Nebraska’s narrowest win was still by 18 points. Beating the teams on your schedule comfortably is exactly what you’re supposed to do.

If those rankings hold up deeper into the season, then we’re onto something. For now, call us SMQ cautiously optimistic.

The SMQ Prediction

The spread quoted during the episode moved from Nebraska favored by 12½ points to 14½, with the total eventually quoted at 52. That alone tells you how quickly expectations have changed. Before the season, this looked like a game that could give Nebraska trouble. Now the conversation is about whether the Huskers win comfortably enough to cover.

A win would put Nebraska at 5–0 and one victory from bowl eligibility. It’s early October, and we’re discussing that possibility without first assembling a spreadsheet of increasingly desperate scenarios. That feels like progress.

Maryland might respond to last week’s embarrassment. Nebraska still needs to prove how good it is against stronger competition. Both things can be true, and the Huskers can still be the clear pick Saturday.

Protect the ball. Keep getting after the quarterback. Come out of halftime looking like you attended the meeting.

Give us another comfortable win, and we’ll continue cautiously enjoying ourselves. It’s an unfamiliar activity, but we’re willing to learn.

Go Huskers.

Our prediction: Nebraska 38, Maryland 14.

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