Has the CJ Carr Heisman Trophy Discussion Already Lost Juice? Not So Fast

While others have soared past Carr in that early debate, remember what awaits. The Heisman Trophy race is a long one.

Sep 19, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) looks on after the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If you have a definitive take on CJ Carr's Heisman Trophy candidacy heading into the last weekend of September, good on you. You clearly see the world through a more black-and-white manner than I do.

As for me, I won't do that. I'll instead stick with the same thing I said in the preseason.

That is, Carr's Heisman candidacy will come down to improving under pressure and how he performs in those all-important three games.

But wait. Hasn't Carr moved behind guys like Trinidad Chambliss and Darian Mensah?

Well, if you follow odds, yes. Places like FanDuel have Carr tied with Manning at +1200 behind the likes of Chambliss (+340), Mensah (+420), Kamario Taylor (+750) and Jeremiah Smith (+850).

It'd be strange if Carr led the Heisman odds after Notre Dame's early-season schedule. Even if he had 15 touchdown passes instead of six, none of those three matchups were expected to be season-defining moments in the way that guys like Chambliss and Manning have already experienced.

As we know, those will come in the latter half against BYU, Miami, and SMU.

Honestly, it speaks more to Carr's status as a household name that he hasn't fallen out of the race after a trio of games that have seen minimal high-pressure moments.

Speaking of pressure, that was the thing that I thought would be what determined Notre Dame's ceiling in 2026. If Carr could master that element instead of it being an Achilles' heel like it was in 2025, he'd be in New York and the Irish would have a realistic path to Vegas in December.

So far, that box hasn't been checked. At least not yet.

On 15 pressured drop-backs, Carr has just seven completions for 72 yards (via PFF). Perhaps more noteworthy is that his average depth of target was just 3.8 yards on those 13 pressured pass attempts (he also took two sacks). Compare that to a 10.6 ADOT when he's not been pressured.

CJ Carr on throws 10+ yards downfield this season:

15/22
424 yards (19.3 YPA)
3 TDs
0 INTs pic.twitter.com/COASLtwwOX

— Underdog CFB (@UnderdogCFB) September 22, 2026

That's an extremely small sample size because he's only been pressured on 19.7% of his drop-backs. Just for a little perspective, Carson had the lowest pressure rate among FBS quarterbacks (min. 50 pressured drop-backs) at 17%. Carr was No. 6 in FBS at 24%, so even as the competition ramps up in 2026, it's not as if that pressure rate will suddenly skyrocket.

That's a credit to the Notre Dame offensive line and the separation that the Irish pass-catchers have gotten. If that number continues, the odds of Carr staying healthy for a Playoff run obviously increase.

But look at Fernando Mendoza and you'll see why that matters

Carr will attempt to follow a similar statistical profile en route to New York. Pre-Heisman, Mendoza had 39 total touchdowns (34 passing, 5 rushing).

More importantly, he finished the season with a QB rating of 199.9 in the second half/overtime, which was the best among Power Conference quarterbacks (min. 100 such attempts) since 2023 Jayden Daniels.

But Mendoza's defining moments came when he faced pressure. He led all qualified FBS quarterbacks (min. 100 drop-backs) with a 102.7 NFL QB rating under pressure.

That's a box that guys like Taylor (158.3 NFL QB rating), Gunner Stockton (156.0) and Mensah (145.0) have checked, as has Chambliss, though his 102.8 NFL QB rating in that spot probably doesn't tell the full story.

Carr's story is far from over. It would benefit his Heisman candidacy to improve his 70 NFL QB rating under pressure, but as we saw with Chambliss already and last year with Mendoza, moments matter more than stats. More moments like this would help the cause for Carr.

YOU CAN'T KEEP CJ CARR DOWN. 😤

📺 Notre Dame Football: Michigan State @ Notre Dame on NBC + Peacock pic.twitter.com/YZiO0jwqoV

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 20, 2026

Will Carr have a "Heisman moment" in 2026? That remains to be seen.

Nothing so far suggests that's off the table.

The downfield accuracy (72.7% adjusted completion percentage on throws 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) coupled with his ability to avoid mistakes (1 turnover-worthy play) will keep Carr firmly in that conversation even if his touchdown and yardage numbers don't set the world on fire.

His time will come. When it does, then we can be a bit more black and white.

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