ESPN FPI Predicts Every Notre Dame Game for 2026 Season

Notre Dame isn't just getting hype from media members, but from the computers as well

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

College football season might not be here quite yet, but its certainly knocking on the door.

And as it approaches, Notre Dame will have it's name near the top of the preseason rankings, as it'll enter with what most believe to be its best national championship chances in decades.

Fan excitement is one thing, but how does a less-biased outlet see Notre Dame's upcoming season going? ESPN's Matchup Predictor has been updated for the 2026 season and sees big things for Notre Dame on a game-by-game basis.

Here is what it says for Notre Dame's chances in all 12 regular-season contests as of July 15, 2026.

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin (Lambeau Field) - September 7

The flyover above a Lambeau Field videoboard before the Green Bay Packers game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field on Nov. 28, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 93%, Wisconsin 7%

Worth noting: The difference between college football elites and what is a middle-tier team is visible here. The chances might seem like Notre Dame is playing an 80th or so ranked team, but ESPN FPI actually ranks Wisconsin as the 43rd best team to start the 2026 season.

Notre Dame vs Rice - September 13

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 99%, Rice 1%

Notre Dame vs Michigan State - September 20

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 96.8%, Michigan State 3.2%

Notre Dame at Purdue - September 27

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 95.6%, Purdue 4.4%

Notre Dame at North Carolina - October 3

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.8%, North Carolina 10.2%

Notre Dame vs Stanford - October 10

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 98.4%, Stanford 1.6%

Notre Dame at BYU - October 17

Oct 18, 2025; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougar fans rush the field after a win over the Utah Utes at LaVell Edwards Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 76%, BYU 24%

Worth noting: BYU is given no worse than a 73.8% chance in its other six home games this season.

Notre Dame vs Navy (Foxborough) - October 31

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 96.7%, Navy 3.3%

Notre Dame vs Miami - November 7

Oct 29, 2016; South Bend, IN, USA; Miami Hurricanes halfback Mark Walton (1) tackled by Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Drue Tranquill (23) in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame won 30-27. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 70.6%, Miami 29.4%

Worth noting: the visiting team in this rivalry hasn't won a game since Miami won in South Bend in 1984

Notre Dame vs Boston College - November 14

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 97.9%, Boston College 2.1%

Notre Dame vs SMU - November 21

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.5%, SMU 10.5%

Notre Dame at Syracuse - November 28

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 95.2%, Syracuse 4.8%

ESPN FPI's Notre Dame Season Odds:

ESPN has its Football Power Index out as well, and gives Notre Dame the following chances in the 2025 season:

Projected record: 10.7-1.3

Finish 12-0: 32.7%

6 or more wins: 100%

Make College Football Playoff: 74.4%

Make National Championship Game: 19.7%

Win National Championship: 10.5%