Notre Dame vs. Miami: ESPN Model Reveals Predicted Winner

Congratulations to everyone reading this post, as it's official, we've made it to the first game week of the 2025 college football season for Notre Dame.

At times this off-season felt like it flew by while at others it felt like it crawled at a snail's pace. Whatever the actual case, Notre Dame opens the season Sunday night in Miami, against a Hurricanes team that is desperate to make it to the College Football Playoff this fall.

Notre Dame at Miami: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Notre Dame and Miami battle in the 2017 game in South Florid — Nov 11, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Jonathan Garvin (97) recovers a ball fumbled by Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush (7) in the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Miami.

Not a whole lot else needs to be said to college football fans to get the juices flowing but add in it being the season opener and both teams being ranked in the preseason top 10, and the intensity grows.

ESPN has released its Matchup Predictor picks for the game and sees Notre Dame having a very slight edge.

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Notre Dame 54.9%, Miami 45.1%.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

Everett Golson runs against Miami in 201 — Oct. 6, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Everett Golson (5) is pressured by Miami Hurricanes defensive end Shayon Green (51) in the second quarter at Soldier Field. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

I have a cycle each off-season that seems to repeat itself on an annual basis.

In mid-February, I'm annually convinced Notre Dame is going to struggle to win eight regular-season games.

By spring football I convince myself that nine wins is likely, and 10 is possible if everything falls right.

Then, as the regular season gets here I convince myself this could finally be the year that Notre Dame wins a national championship again.

I say that tongue in cheek a bit, but the closer this game gets, the better I feel about Notre Dame's chances. So much has been made about Carson Beck transferring from Georgia to Miami and giving the Hurricanes the quarterback advantage in this contest.

That's fine and dandy, but when are Beck and Notre Dame starting quarterback CJ Carr actually on the field against each other?

Carson Beck has to throw against what should be a very good Notre Dame pass rush and what will almost certainly be an elite secondary.

Carson Beck at ACC Media Days in 202 — Jul 22, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Miami quarterback Carson Beck answers questions from the media during ACC Media Days at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Miami may have loaded up in the transfer portal this offseason, but when it comes to being a complete team, I struggle to see this being anywhere near as closely contested as the Matchup Predictor says it will.

Then again, the last time Notre Dame played the Hurricanes, I was convinced that was going to be a one-sided game in favor of the Irish. As it turned out, it was one-sided, but entirely in the wrong way.