Notre Dame vs. Miami Prediction: Can Irish Upset No. 1 Hurricanes?

Notre Dame last beat the No. 1 team in the country on Nov. 7, 2020

Sep 19, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) looks on after the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the first time in exactly seven years, Notre Dame welcomes the No. 1 team in the nation to South Bend.

Like last time, when top-ranked an unbeaten Clemson came to town late in the 2020 season, another ACC foe brings an unbeaten an No. 1 ranking.

This time its the mighty Miami Hurricanes and the rivalry between the two programs is as strong as ever.

Game week

🆚 Miami
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Nov. 7
⏰ 7:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/xO17lohHXw

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 2, 2026

So does Notre Dame knock off No. 1? Or does Miami leave South Bend with the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff seemingly on ice?

Here's what the matchups favor on Saturday night in South Bend:

When Miami Has the Ball

Malachi Toney or not, this Miami offense is like few in all of college football. Sure, its biggest playmaker is out, but can Notre Dame slow down the thunder and lightning running attack of Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher?

Furthermore, Darian Mensah has 25 touchdown passes to just one interception all season long. Can Notre Dame's defense, which will be playing a bit shorthanded itself, keep Miami in check enough?

That has been a major issue in the biggest games over the last two seasons.

Advantage: Miami

When Notre Dame Has the Ball

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Notre Dame has one of the better offensive lines in college football but has its work cut out against this Miami defensive front. The Hurricanes are allowing just 2.4 yards per rush attempt this year, which means Notre Dame likely won't be able to play the same ball possession type game it likes to.

That means CJ Carr's moment is now: Miami has a pass defense that has surrendered huge numbers in narrow escapes against both Florida State and North Carolina. Can Carr do enough to win what could very possibly turn into a track meet between the powerhouse programs?

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams For the Win?

So far we're pretty much at a toss-up, and we figure special teams will end up being huge.

Notre Dame doesn't have to have a kick return for a touchdown to win this thing, but overall, its numbers in kick return, punt return, kick coverage, and punt coverage give the Irish an advantage statisically.

Factor in a veteran kicker in Spencer Porath who is Notre Dame's best at the position in years and special teams coordinator Marty Biagi, who has had a bit of a quiet year by his standards, to date, and I expect to see the Irish steal a possession and deciding score as a result.

Nick Shepkowski's Prediction:

History is the blueprint.

We decide what happens next.

Game 9 | Miami#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/X8MAsBHOaX

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 6, 2026

Saturday night ends with CJ Carr suddenly being the Heisman Trophy front runner after he throws for 350 yards, four touchdowns, and leads a late drive that ends with a Notre Dame field goal as time expires.

Notre Dame 38, Miami 37