Notre Dame vs SEC? That's What the National Championship Picture Feels Like

Close your eyes and picture the bracket for the final year of the 12-team Playoff. Now take it a step further and envision what the post-Selection Sunday predictions will look like.

Now open your eyes to read the rest of this column and nod your head at your phone/computer screen/tablet if you agree with this sentiment.

This will all come down to Notre Dame and the SEC.

It's not just that the latest odds reflect that

Take a look at the FanDuel odds and you'll see that same takeaway. There are seven teams with 16-to-1 odds or better, and five of them are either Notre Dame (+390) or an SEC team.

Here's perhaps the most telling number. Utah (+2500) is undefeated and sitting at No. 2 in the Playoff rankings, yet it's not even in the top 7 of those odds while a 6-3 LSU team is in that group.

Why? Well, Utah is trying to do something that hasn't been done in 25 years. That is, win a national championship with a Year 1 coach.

It's also trying to be the last team standing for a Big 12 conference that has just one Playoff victory to speak of (2022 TCU vs. Michigan) in the 12 years post-BCS, and it was followed by a 65-7 beatdown from Georgia, who ate chicken wings in the fourth quarter of that game.

Dawgs are eatin’, no literally…🍽@GeorgiaFootball 🤣#CFBPlayoff | #NationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/VTJOnvL4T9
— CFP (@CFBPlayoff) January 10, 2023

It's not that Utah can't win it all. It's that it still feels like a long shot.

What about Miami? The Hurricanes are still part of those seven national title favorites, and at this time last week was the undisputed No. 1 team in the sport.

But the multi-week loss of all-world star Malachi Toney combined with a declining defense put those aspirations on hold. We need to see what Toney looks like when he returns and whether a defense that allowed 6.1 yards per play since the start of October can turn things around before we put Miami back on that short list of title contenders.

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But this is really about the Big Ten's struggles

In the last three years, three different Big Ten teams won national titles. This year, the only Big Ten team in that group of seven national title contenders is Indiana (+950).

In other news, IU lacks a single win against a Big Ten team with a winning record in conference play, and the Hoosiers have a quarterback controversy after playing in their fourth consecutive down-to-the-wire game.

Is it still Curt Cignetti? Sure. Since the Irish booted him from the 2024 Playoff, he suffered one loss, and if Nick Marsh had just ... never mind. You get it.

But the defending champs posted four consecutive games in which they've had 11 points or less heading into the fourth quarter. A championship-level defense can only do so much, especially if the quarterback situation remains fluid.

Speaking of fluid quarterback situations, any Big Ten contender would instantly vault to the top of the national championship odds if they had a quarterback like CJ Carr. Instead, UCLA, Ohio State and Oregon are all riding with backups after their starters got hurt, while Indiana and Iowa have late-season controversies at the position.

USC wasn't part of that group. Why not? USC winning a national championship would include beating both Indiana and UCLA, then winning four more games vs. top-12 teams with a coach (Lincoln Riley) who has never won a Playoff game.

Hence, USC is only 55-to-1 to win it all.

(But remember, the championship window for USC is now open, according to Riley.)

Have crazier things happened? Of course. We're 10 months removed from Indiana completing a 16-0 season.

In a year in which being a top-2 team has been the equivalent of the "Defense of the Dark Arts" teacher at Hogwarts, we can't rule out miracles.

But after the likes of Notre Dame, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Texas all picked up marquee victories against ranked foes in Week 10, it doesn't feel crazy to see a certain scenario in the crystal ball. Perhaps it's three SEC teams and the Irish in the semifinals.

What's feeling more and more likely is that Notre Dame's path to its first national title in 38 years will go through multiple SEC contenders. Time will tell what those potential matchups will entail.

For now, though, we can project a fourth quarter without chicken wings.

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