Notre Dame vs Oregon State Game Predictions

The 16th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) take on the 19th-ranked Oregon State Beavers in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on Friday as both teams look to end their seasons with a big win. Notre Dame will also look to get its first ever win against the Beavers while also achieving a 10th win of the 2023 season.

Where: Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas)
When: Friday, December 29th
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Network: CBS
Line: Notre Dame -6.5, O/U: 41.5

Irish Breakdown has analyzed the game all week and now it's time to make our predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Oregon State 10

With so many players sitting out for both teams it is really hard to evaluate this game, but here goes! There are a lot of matchups that Notre Dame should be able to take advantage of against the Oregon State defense, but the new starters at tackle and quarterback are unproven. Can Steve Angeli take advantage of the perimeter matchups? Can he make the easy throws to move the chains, and the downfield throws to really spark the offense? If he is able, can the offensive tackles protect him against an Oregon State pass rush that ranked 10th in sacks per game this season.

If those answers are positive I could see the offense having a day against Oregon State, but those question marks have me thinking this will be a lower scoring game. I think Notre Dame can get the ground game going against the Beavers, but the key to winning a tight game and winning convincingly - which won't be easy - will be Angeli's ability to get the ball down the field to his talented pass catchers.

The biggest reason I'm confident in Notre Dame winning this game is the matchup of its defense against the Oregon State offense. It would have favored Notre Dame if both teams were at full strength, but with Oregon State missing three starting linemen, two of its top three pass catchers, it's top two quarterbacks and like its leading rusher this should be a mismatch. I predict Oregon State struggles to move the ball and score, with the Irish offense turning it over being the only real danger outside of Silas Bolden.

RYAN ROBERTS, RECRUITING DIRECTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Oregon State 13

Notre Dame is set for a bit of a youth movement during the ball game. That means that they will be somewhat inexperienced, but also very talented. Expect some explosive plays with some mistakes littered throughout.

The Beavers are dealing with a lot of transition themselves. They will be with a new head coach, their third string quarterback, backup offensive tackles and some new players in the secondary. That should give the Irish the advantage.

SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Oregon State 13

In a perfect world this game would feature Sam Hartman leading Notre Dame in a clash with DJ Uiagalelei and Oregon State. A head-to-head quarterback matchup going back to their ACC days at Wake Forest and Clemson. Instead, Hartman has opted out to protect his draft status and Uiagalelei is in the transfer portal. It’s not just those two though, all the defections on both sides have kept ESPN’s opt out tracker working overtime.

Irish fans are familiar enough with Steve Angeli at quarterback while OSU will go back to Ben Gulbranson, who played in just one game this year but was the Beavers’ primary quarterback last season. Gulbranson was the Las Vegas Bowl MVP in OSU’s 30-3 win over Florida. He threw eight touchdowns with five interceptions while running for 35 yards and four touchdowns as well.

With Notre Dame’s stout defense mostly intact from the regular season, Gulbranson and company are likely to throw some new wrinkles out early but should have a tough time mounting a consistent attack. Angeli will have the luxury of having a healthy receiving corps of Jayden Thomas, Jaden Greathouse and Deion Colzie along with Jordan Faison. Something Hartman lacked for more than half of the season. With a retooled offensive line and no Audric Estime, not to mention no Gerad Parker, the Irish offense will likely look different but the difference in talent compared to their competition should be obvious.

ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Oregon State 17

Notre Dame fans definitely wanted the season to end at a sunny destination, but the Sun Bowl itself is a step down from what Irish fans had envisioned. However, that doesn't take away the importance of this game to Marcus Freeman and this Notre Dame squad. In addition to having the chance for a double-digit win season, the Irish will also get a chance to showcase the young talent like Charles Jagusah, Jeremiyah Love, and others that makes the staff and fanbase so optimistic for the future.

I expect Oregon State to come ready to play as this is a proud, blue-collar football team, but even though the Beavers don't have the same quantity of opt-outs as Notre Dame, they are missing their top two quarterbacks, playmking TE Jack Velling, and star defenders LB Easton Mascarenas and safety Akili Arnold. That doesn't even count the loss of head coach Johnathan Smith, who took the Michigan State job following the loss to Oregon in the Civil War. Smith will be replaced by defensive coordinator Trent Bray, but Bray will not coach the bowl game, leaving the Beavers without their defensive coordinator as well. Oregon State did get some good news this week when star RB Damian Martinez's suspension was lifted, but Martinez will find tough sledding against a Notre Dame defense who does not fear the passing game.

If Notre Dame QB Steve Angeli is able to take care of the football and build on the performances we saw this season in limited action (76% completion, 4 TDs) by getting the ball out quickly to his playmakers on the perimeter and playing to the talent at running back, Notre Dame will pull away for a 10-point win in the second half, and head into what has already been a program-defining offseason.

SHAUN DAVIS, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Oregon State 13

The Fighting Irish and Beavers both come into this matchup without some it’s most talented players and that might make things more intriguing. Oregon State has a new head coach that won’t be coaching in the bowl game, so Kefense Hyson will lead the way and call plays on offense. Most of their opt-outs are on the offensive side of the ball, but their highly productive defensive front will be in place, and that could be a heavy advantage considering the Fighting Irish will be without it’s starting tackles on the offensive line. The pass rush was among the best in the country, the run D allowed just over 100 yards per game, and there’s a chance the Irish can’t do anything consistently well on the ground. Oregon State is 6-0 when allowing fewer than 88 rushing yards.

Notre Dame has an opportunity to show the depth that Marcus Freeman and staff have developed over the last two years in this game. The Fighting Irish want to typically establish the run and play great defense as the foundation of winning football. This may be a difficult task versus the Beavers, but the absence of Joe Alt, Blake Fisher and Audric Estime elevates the level of difficulty. Throw in first time starting quarterback in Steve Angeli and a lack of depth at the wide receiver position while you’re at it. Defensively, the Fighting Irish come locked and loaded to continue their great season under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They will face a troubled Beavers’ offense without their best players and that is the ultimate advantage in this matchup. Notre Dame has the better backups, and their defense should control the game early until the offense wakes up.

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