Best Bets for College Football Conference Championship Weekend

With college football championship games on Friday and Saturday, here are our picks for the best bets this weekend.

Author:
Staff Writer
Dec 18, 2020 3:00 PM EST

It’s championship weekend in college football! While this season has been anything but normal, and the goalposts seem to be moving around every hour, and the debates remain full throttle, conference trophies will still be raised in one fashion or another.

Different leagues, playing a different number of games, across different timelines, with a different number of players each week, in front of different crowds, has led us to this. While it may not be the “truest” reflection of a season, let’s be thankful that we at least have games to watch.

The betting public certainly remains thankful for the chance to still have action this fall, regardless of the circumstances. So, here’s a look at our best wagering options for title games this weekend:

Pac-12 Championship: Oregon vs. No. 13 USC

When: Friday, 8 p.m. (FOX)
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Calif.)
Spread: USC (-3), Total (64.5)

Analysis: What a mess this league quickly became (is anyone shocked?) after starting the schedule on November 7. Washington has been removed and Oregon is now a substitute opponent for the unbeaten Trojans. But, just because the Ducks aren’t supposed to be here doesn’t mean they can’t win. Oregon’s two recent losses are by a combined seven points. USC, conversely, has three victories by five points or less… including last week against UCLA in a game they had little business covering.

Things even out in the world of sports betting. Teams are likely not going to cover every game, or vice versa, and are going to play a mix of over/unders. In this case, USC has covered three in a row while Oregon holds an 0-3 ATS streak. We’ll take a chance that things even out… and nothing would be more fitting for the Pac-12 than the substitute opponent raising the trophy.

The Pick: Oregon (+3)

Can Tyler Shough, Jaylon Redd and the 3-2 Oregon Ducks claim a Pac-12 title?

Big Ten Championship: No. 14 Northwestern vs. No. 4 Ohio State

When: Saturday, 12 p.m. (FOX)
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Ind.)
Spread: Ohio State (-20), Total (57.5)

Game Preview Available Here

Analysis: Ohio State should trounce Northwestern, right? The Buckeyes feel they have something to prove, as evident by Shaun Wade recently telling teammates “we have to blow them out.” The offense is averaging over 46 points per game. Northwestern lost to Michigan State and eked out narrow wins over Nebraska, Iowa and Purdue. Dwayne Haskins diced Pat Fitzgerald’s defense for 500 yards in the 2018 championship game, where OSU pulled away late to win by three touchdowns. It’s easy to see how this one should be a blowout with Ohio State hanging a tasty 50-burger. The Buckeyes are attracting 81% of public money on the spread in Vegas… but that city has nice chandeliers for a reason.

The Pick: Northwestern (+20)

Can Paddy Fisher (42) and the Northwestern defense keep this game relatively close?

Big 12 Championship: No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 6 Iowa State

When: Saturday, 12 p.m. (ABC)
Where: AT&T Stadium (Texas)
Spread: Oklahoma (-5.5), Total (58)

Analysis: Here is the highly-anticipated rematch after Iowa State emerged (37-30) earlier this fall in Ames. ISU leader Matt Campbell has garnered tons of attention lately, and deservedly so, but let’s not forget that Lincoln Riley can also really coach too. The last five matchups in this series (since Campbell arrived) have all been decided by 10 points or less… so expect another classic showdown. The betting public is relatively split here on the spread, but let’s gander at the total:

The last four meetings have all seen a combined 64 points or more, with the fifth falling at exactly 58. Oklahoma (43 ppg) and Iowa State (34 ppg) have both played a few Under games lately, so maybe it’s time to even that out and enjoy another shootout in this series?

The Pick: Over 58

How many points will Brock Purdy help the Cyclone offense post?

ACC Championship: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 2 Notre Dame

When: Saturday, 4 p.m. (ABC)
Where: Bank of America Stadium (N.C.)
Spread: Clemson (-10.5), Total (60)

Analysis: Another rematch we have all been waiting for, with Clemson star Trevor Lawrence back under center this time after notably missing the first meeting. Backup DJ Uiagalelei nearly led the Tigers to a road win in South Bend (as 5.5 point favorites) before falling in overtime. Notre Dame is really good and its quarterback, Ian Book, probably doesn’t get talked about enough on the national landscape…

But Vegas is smarter than us. Clemson was favored by 5.5, on the road with a freshman backup in the first meeting, and nearly covered in regulation. So, seeing a double-digit spread this time around (albeit between a pair of top-three teams) shouldn’t appear that sketchy. It certainly feels like a lot of points, but don’t put it past Dabo to run it up late and try to make a statement.

The Pick: Clemson (-10.5)

The two sides played an absolute thriller earlier this year in South Bend.

SEC Championship: No. 7 Florida vs. No. 1 Alabama

When: Saturday, 8 p.m. (CBS)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Ga.)
Spread: Alabama (-17.5), Total (74.5)

Analysis: The Crimson Tide have looked incredible every step of the way, leading to a sizeable spread here despite the Gators also being formidable. Florida lost a wild 37-34 game with struggling LSU last week in The Swamp, but let’s try to reassess for a minute. While it was a bad loss on paper, Florida was without star TE Kyle Pitts and probably wins if Marco Wilson doesn’t recklessly heave that shoe downfield…

We aren’t saying Florida is going to win the game, but Pitts is likely returning and it feels like you may see a somewhat inspired performance from the Gators. Betting against Saban’s loaded bunch is never fun, and this could backfire, but the total of 74.5 suggests both teams will score. We’ll guess that Kyle Trask can score just enough.

The Pick: Florida (17.5)

Kyle Pitts (11 TD's in seven games) is expected to be cleared for Saturday.

AAC Championship: No. 23 Tulsa vs. No. 9 Cincinnati

When: Saturday, 8 p.m. (ABC)
Where: Nippert Stadium (Ohio)
Spread: Cincinnati (-14.5), Total (45.5)

Analysis: This game has already been postponed once and then canceled another time, so we finally get the showdown here for a league crown. What more can you say about Luke Fickell and the Bearcats that hasn’t already been bragged about? The program is 30-5 the past three seasons and is now forcing debates regarding being worthy of a playoff spot…

This game is a bit hard to handicap, considering Cincinnati hasn’t played in a month while Tulsa has had two weeks off. But, STYLES MAKE FIGHTS. While Zach Smith and Desmond Ridder are both capable upperclassmen signal callers, both of these defenses have been even better. Last season’s matchup between these clubs finished 24-13. The two Cincinnati games this year with a total closing between 44-45 finished 24-10 (Army) and 28-7 (South Florida). Also, don’t forget the potential for inclement weather in the great state of Ohio!

The Pick: Under 45.5