Why Ohio State's Playoff Hopes May Come Down to Week 10 Game Against Oregon

The Buckeyes are in must-win mode and could need extra help to make the CFP.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates a first down catch during the second half of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. Ohio State won 41-21. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Ohio State Buckeyes could be on the brink of College Football Playoff elimination if they drop back-to-back games in a would-be home upset loss to the Oregon Ducks this coming Saturday in Columbus (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

Last Saturday's 30-18 loss to the then-unranked USC Trojans in Southern California (who moved up to No. 18 following a potentially season-saving triumph), left Ohio State with more questions than answers, both internally and externally (Buckeye Nation), about where the program is headed as the end-of-regular-season stretch approaches.

Coach Ryan Day was brutally honest: the standard is unacceptable, and that's putting it lightly.

Nonetheless, Day admitted that a tempo-style approach played a role offensively, as did quarterback Luke Fahey's initial start.

Why Ohio State & Luke Fahey Failed to Convert vs. USC

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Luke Fahey (13) signals during the NCAA football game against the USC Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 31, 2026. Ohio State lost 30-18. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

"Well, once we were down by two scores, we knew we were in [the] game — that we had to go," Day told reporters. "We didn't want to panic and just start going into that with a young quarterback, and the game just turned upside down really fast."

Day said there were few positives to take away, which makes the game against Ducks coach Dan Lanning a non-negotiable must-win scenario. He also reflected on the missed conversion late in the fourth quarter, which was ultimately the Buckeyes' last home attempt at getting within a touchdown.

“So analytics-wise, and some of the conversations that we had, we decided that when we're in those situations, that's what we would do," Day said on the Buckeye Roundtable Show. "But all that matters is you've got to be able to convert the two-point conversion. And that's not what happened.”

Day said he felt the offense was slowly but surely running out of goal-to-go or general scoring opportunities despite the risk not being rewarded with a touchdown to cap off the drive.

“So we've talked about this many times leading up to the season: that situation," Day said. "And I think my first instinct was you kick the extra point and then you just play to have an opportunity to win the game at the end. But when you go back through it, and the team understands, at some point you have to get a two-point conversion to win the game at that moment."

Unlike Ohio State, the Ducks secured a much-needed win themselves last Saturday against then-ranked Northwestern, 34-26. Unlike Ohio State, Oregon is all but eliminated from CFP contention with a month to go.

However, given how unpredictable college football has been, tonight's playoff reveal show should deliver much more clarity.