Buckeyes Still Have a CFP Path Without Julian Sayin

With Julian Sayin sidelined and the Big Ten race tightening, the Buckeyes’ playoff path could depend on more than just winning their own games.

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Tavien St. Clair (9) warms up beside quarterback Luke Fahey (13) during the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio State's playoff path changed when Julian Sayin went out. They're 6-1 (one point loss at Texas) and now have to try and keep their season on track without their starting QB. Making the College Football Playoffs would be a huge achievement for a team that's suffered a major injury and have a tough November schedule.

If OSU goes 4-1 in their final five games, they finish 10-2) a will almost certainly get to the Big Ten Championship Game. That would give them a very strong resume and a conference title game appearance even if they don't win the Big Ten trophy. They should also be hoping for as much chaos as possible elsewhere, particularly that the SEC teams keep on losing and get to 3 or more conference losses (to thin the at-large field).

UCLA is the team Ohio State needs to be watching. They're 5-0 in conference play, one game in front of the Buckeyes who are 4-0. Any loss by UCLA would open the door for OSU to pass them. A win over USC next week would see OSU go 5-0 in the Big Ten and hand the Trojans their third conference loss.

If the Buckeyes loss two more times, it would not necessarily doom their playoff hopes.

Clemson made the 2024 CFP at 10-3 after winning the ACC Championship Game. Alabama made the 2025 CFP at 10-3 after losing the SEC Championship Game. Those are the types of examples that show you can have a strong enough resume to keep a 3-loss team in the conversation.

But the conference title route can be a bit odd. Last season 7-5 Duke got to the ACC Championship Game via tiebreakers and defeated Virginia. Duke didn't get an automatic CFP bid (under that year's format the 5 highest ranked conference champions got the automatic bids and James Madison as the Sun Belt champ got the final spot). Those rules have since been modified.

For Ohio State the lesson is that winning the Big Ten is still the best way to go. A 9-3 regular season record would still see them in the field if they go on to win the conference championship. If they don't make it to Indianapolis, they'd need a very good finish and lots of help from others in and outside the conference. Under the 2026 CFP format the 4 Power 4 champs get the automatic bids, plus the highest ranked champ from the other conferences. The remaining 7 spots are at-large.

The first CFP rankings aren't even out yet so the committee picture is still very much in flux. For now, Ohio State's best path is to just keep on winning, get to the Big Ten title game and let all the other contenders in the country fall by the wayside.