Ohio State's Final Regular-Season Record Teased By ESPN FPI Entering Week 9

It's nearly impossible to be a perfect college football team for an entire season. Just ask the Indiana Hoosiers: their 22-game winning streak was snapped in Bloomington by the Ohio State Buckeyes two weeks ago, shaking up the Big Ten title and Playoff conversation.

Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten), the Hoosiers (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) and the UCLA Bruins (7-0, 5-0 Big Ten) are certainly in the conversation. Not to mention that the Northwestern Wildcats (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) have won four in a row and are a sneaky College Football Playoff contender if they run the table or finish with two losses by the end of the regular season.

Luckily, the Buckeyes are going to be tested by a few teams with similar goals during the regular-season's stretch run. It begins Saturday night with a road game against the USC Trojans (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten), as their chances to make the CFP field took a massive dent last Saturday in a 24-7 loss to the now-ranked No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers, 24-7, at Camp Randall Stadium.

With the Trojans' other loss also coming in league play against the Oregon Ducks, falling 41-27 Sept. 26 in what would be the final game for Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (concussion) to this point, the margin for error is small. But so is Ohio State's.

Friday night, freshman backup quarterback Luke Fahey officially replaced Julian Sayin, two weeks after Sayin was removed from the eventual 19-15 win due to a shoulder injury in his right throwing arm.

With little action in Columbus so far, inserting Fahey into the starting lineup could completely alter season expectations. However, according to ESPN's FPI predictor, the Buckeyes should be in good shape for their end-of-year slate.

Ohio State's FPI Prediction Should Leave Fans Optimistic

Ryan Day vs. Indiana — Oct 17, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day reacts during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Assuming the Buckeyes can get past the Trojans, the FPI predicts an 86.9 percent chance they'll knock off the unranked Ducks next Saturday without Moore in the lineup.

The following week, the Wildcats head to Columbus and it's unclear where they will be come Week 11 given that the Ducks and Iowa Hawkeyes are up next, respectively, over the next two games.

Either way, Northwestern will remain a one-loss CFP contender or jocky for bowl positioning, with two or three losses having already clinched eligibility last Saturday with a 42-14 win against Rutgers in Evanston.

As it stands now, Ohio State is projected to beat the Wildcats at home come Saturday, Nov. 14, with an 88.5 percent chance.

Closing out the regular season includes games against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln and the Michigan Wolverines in Columbus to wrap up Ohio State's 12-game schedule by Thanksgiving weekend.

In both games, the FPI expects the Buckeyes to handle business. Against the Cornhuskers, despite a likely challenging Memorial Stadium atmosphere, Ohio State is given a 74.9 percent chance to win. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes will try to make it back-to-back victories against Michigan, with a likely chance of 91.3 percent.

So, yes, even with a backup quarterback, the model projects Ohio State to finish 11-1 (9-0 Big Ten), with its lone loss coming against the Texas Longhorns in a Week 2 September thriller in Austin. The Buckeyes came up on the wrong end of a 24-23 decision, squandering a double-digit lead Sept 12.

Now, more than ever, the literal results must prove the FPI model correct by the end of the regular season.

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