What Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud’s Second Years Suggest About Julian Sayin’s 2026

Ohio State has become something like a finishing school for quarterbacks, thanks to Ohio State head coach Ryan Day.

Over the past several seasons, the program has taken talented but unproven first-year starters and watched them turn into some of the most decorated players in school history by year two. Justin Fields did it. C.J. Stroud did it. Now the question in Columbus is whether Julian Sayin, coming off a historic redshirt freshman campaign, can complete the same climb in 2026.

To understand what "improvement" might even look like for Sayin, it helps to look closely at how his two most recent predecessors changed — not just in raw numbers, but in the ways that actually mattered.

Justin Fields: From Spectacular to Surgical

Justin Fields arrived at Ohio State in 2019 as a Georgia transfer with enormous expectations, and he mostly silenced any doubts immediately. In his first year as the starter, he completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 3,273 yards, threw 41 touchdowns against just three interceptions, and added 484 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. It was one of the best statistical debuts by a quarterback in school history and made him a Heisman finalist.

The follow-up in 2020 doesn't look as gaudy on the surface — 2,100 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions — but that's misleading. The 2020 season was chopped down to eight games by COVID-19 disruptions, so Fields was actually playing at a higher per-game clip than he had as a freshman starter.

More importantly, his efficiency jumped: his completion percentage rose to 70.2 percent, a school record at the time, and his passer rating actually dipped slightly from an outlier 2019 mark but remained elite. He was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and Quarterback of the Year in both seasons, and he led Ohio State to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances, including a run to the national title game.

The lesson from Fields' progression isn't really about touchdown totals. It's about tightening up decision-making and ball security while playing at a similarly explosive level — becoming more efficient, not just more productive.

C.J. Stroud: Growth That Didn't Show Up in the Box Score

Stroud's case is even more instructive, because his raw numbers actually went down in year two. As a redshirt freshman in 2021, he had one of the great debut seasons in college football history: 4,435 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and a 71.9 completion percentage, good enough to finish fourth in Heisman voting behind a offense that featured two future first-round receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

In 2022, both of those receivers were gone. Stroud's completion percentage dipped into the mid-60s, and his passing yardage dropped to roughly 3,700 — still elite, but a step down statistically. Yet by any measure that actually predicts NFL success, Stroud improved. He proved he could carry an offense without Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson bailing him out.

He was calmer in the pocket, better at manufacturing plays with a rebuilt receiving corps led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka (Jaxon Smith-Njigba suffered an injury in the 2022 season opener), and his performance in the Peach Bowl — throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns with zero picks despite missing nearly every one of his top skill-position players — became a signature moment for his draft stock. He repeated as Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and Quarterback of the Year, was a two-time Heisman finalist, and went second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, ahead of quarterbacks with flashier college numbers.

The takeaway here is arguably the more important one for projecting Sayin: sometimes a quarterback's "improvement" year isn't visible in the stat sheet at all. It shows up in composure, situational football, and the ability to be the best player on the field even when the supporting cast changes.

Julian Sayin's Historic Starting Point

This is what makes projecting a 2026 leap for Sayin such an unusual exercise — his 2025 debut wasn't just good, it was record-setting. As a redshirt freshman, Sayin went on to complete 77.0 percent of his passes, the highest completion percentage in a single season in college football history. He threw for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions, finished fourth in the Heisman race, won the Shaun Alexander National Freshman of the Year award, and led Ohio State to a 12-0 regular season and its first Big Ten Championship Game appearance since 2020.

Unlike Fields and Stroud, Sayin doesn't have an obvious "before" to compare a statistical breakout to — he was already the most accurate passer in the sport's history in year one. That flips the usual improvement question on its head. Where Fields and Stroud used year two to refine an already-productive game, Sayin's year two has to answer a different question: can he be even more precise, and can he elevate his game in exactly the moments that got away from him as a freshman?

Those moments are instructive. Sayin's two losses — the Big Ten Championship Game against Indiana and the Cotton Bowl/CFP quarterfinal against Miami — were also his roughest statistical outings, including a costly fourth-and-1 sneak that came up short in Indianapolis and three interceptions across those two games after throwing only five in his first twelve outings combined. If Fields' leap was about efficiency and Stroud's was about composure under a diminished supporting cast, Sayin's most plausible growth area is finishing: closing out high-leverage possessions in the biggest games rather than in the 12-0 stretch against everyone else.

What a Sayin Leap Could Look Like in 2026

Following the Fields and Stroud blueprints, a "better" Sayin season in 2026 might not mean gaudier counting stats — it may be difficult to top a 77 percent completion rate and a 32-touchdown, eight-interception ratio as a first-time starter. Instead, expect the encouraging signs to show up elsewhere in the following areas ~

Command in must-win moments - Both Fields and Stroud are remembered for taking over signature games (Fields against Clemson, Stroud against Georgia in the Peach Bowl). Sayin's chance to write that chapter is against the teams that beat him in 2025 - remember, Ohio State's 2026 schedule is quite daunting.

More live-arm creation - With another year in Ryan Day's system and a full offseason as a returning starter — plus the return of Jeremiah Smith at receiver — Sayin has the pieces to push his yards-per-attempt and explosive-play numbers even with an already sky-high completion rate.

Leadership and command of the huddle -Sayin has already spoken about taking on more ownership of the offense in his second year, echoing the way both Fields and Stroud grew into more vocal, decisive leaders as veterans of the system. Sayin was named a captain for the 2026 season by his teammates, so the reports of Sayin's offseason assertiveness may be manifesting.

Continued national recognition - Fields and Stroud both used their second seasons to cement themselves as top NFL Draft prospects. A repeat Heisman-caliber season — even one that looks statistically similar to 2025 — would put Sayin in rare company.

Ohio State's recent history suggests the raw numbers aren't always the best measure of a second-year jump. If Sayin's 2026 season ends with Ohio State back in the College Football Playoff and further along than the quarterfinal loss that ended 2025, that will be the clearest sign yet that the Buckeyes' quarterback pipeline has produced its next star.

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