Three Reasons Why Oklahoma Can Compete for a National Championship in 2026

Oklahoma is entering 2026 with a bit of fanfare. That tends to happen when you return a great deal of experience and talent from a College Football Playoff team from a year ago.

Still, the talk surrounding the Sooners tends to lean more pessimistic than optimistic. With one of the more difficult schedules in the country, it's easy to casually toss OU among the good teams that could be undone by a tough slate of games.

But there are reasons to be optimistic. Three to be exact.

As the sport has shown, what has been a trend over the previous few seasons can be undone by the right collection of coaching and talent. Oklahoma has had ups and downs during Brent Venables' tenure — here is how 2026 can be a culmination.

Oklahoma Sooners, John Mateer — Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Reason 1: By November, The Understanding Is "Mateer Was Just Hurt in 2025"

It's that simple. If OU has navigated road games at Michigan, Georgia, Texas in the Cotton Bowl and a tricky game in Starkville to a strong record, it will become apparent that the offensive woes of a year ago had more to do with a broken hand than a

That doesn't mean Oklahoma has gone undefeated by November, but it would mean that the Sooners were not only equipped with an elite defense, but also with an offense that can put pressure on opponents.

Venables has built the defense into a unit with reasonable, but high expectations. Should the offense finally take a step in 2026 with many of the same cast of characters, success should follow.

It would also mean that Oklahoma was denied perhaps a better team/season in 2025 thanks to an ill-timed injury to John Mateer.

Reason 2: The Schedule Opens Up

Brent Venables, Oklahoma Sooner — Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables, at right, and Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian talk before the Red River Showdown college football game between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and Texas | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma may very well have four AP top 10 opponents on their schedule to start the year, with a fifth team in Michigan among the top 25.

The Sooners' date with the Wolverines comes in new head coach Kyle Wittingham's second game of his tenure. That's an advantage for Oklahoma even as a visitor to a stadium the program has never seen.

Georgia in Athens is a tall task. Good teams are afforded a mulligan or two in the expanded playoff era.

Texas is an interesting case. With games against Ohio State in Austin and Tennessee on the road, the Longhorns will either be battered and bruised or have their sights set on a national championship. Either scenario plays well for Oklahoma, should they have only one loss heading to Dallas.

Oklahoma Sooners, Jayden Jackson, David Stone — Oklahoma defensive tackles Jayden Jackson and David Stone talk during one of the Brent Venables Football Camps. | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

The prime factor for OU against Texas — be healthy, specifically at quarterback.

After that, Oklahoma will have (on paper) two large games in Norman left against Ole Miss and Texas A&M — the other two likely top 10 opponents in the preseason.

Perhaps Ole Miss' shine has dimmed by November. With a new head coach and a significant loss of talent, maybe Oklahoma's game against the Rebels isn't as difficult as it appeared in August.

The Aggies will be tough due to their skill talent, but a loss of experience in the trenches may be their downfall.

Reason 3: OU Gets a Great Draw in the CFP

Oklahoma Sooners, Brent Venables — Oklahoma coach Brent Venables looks on during one of OU's elite prospect camps. | Carson Field / Sooners On S

Sometimes it comes down to matchups.

Last season, Miami stumbled in conference play — missing the ACC Championship outright — and still earned a fortuitous matchup against Texas A&M on an extremely windy day. The Hurricanes won a sloppy game in the first round and rode that momentum in an upset win over Ohio State.

OU squandered an opportunity last December with a 17-0 lead at home. But even before the game began and the Sooners were able to jump out to that lead, it was easy to see how difficult a road they would have had should they have won in the first round.

Beat Alabama, a team you've already beaten, again (difficult), and your reward is the No. 1 team in the nation, Indiana.

Oklahoma Sooners, John Mateer, Kip Lewis — Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, linebacker Kip Lewis | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

The Sooners could go 10-2 again in 2026, but their standing could be much higher as a result of the previous year's success.

In 2025, OU was reminded of how fortunate they were in one-score games. Considering the offense was average, the national consensus was that OU was a good team, but the 10 wins may have been a mirage.

As a result, Oklahoma was one of the last teams in the field and had to prove it once again against the Crimson Tide.

A 10-2 record with last season's success in the background of the College Football Playoff Committee could lead to a better matchup for OU. That better matchup could act as a spring board to a deep playoff run.

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