Is Oklahoma State’s Schedule Really the Fifth Toughest in the Big 12?

The Oklahoma State Cowboys kick off the Eric Morris era on Sept. 5 at Tulsa. It’s the first game of a 12-game schedule sure to test the program.

Just how much it will test the Cowboys is up for debate.

The schedule was baked in long ago. The non-conference games were agreed to years ago while this year’s Big 12 schedule is the third year of a four-year scheduling matrix created by the league before the 2024 season when it swelled to 16 teams.

Difficulty is in the eye of the beholder. Recently, On3’s Brett McMurphy (subscription required) rated the Cowboys’ schedule as tied for the fifth toughest with BYU in the conference.

But is it? Let’s dig in.

The Difficulty of Oklahoma State’s 2026 Schedule

Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker is interviewed during a spring football game. — Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

McMurphy didn’t provide any real logic behind his rankings, though he did mention OSU’s game with Oregon as one of the toughest non-conference games for any Big 12 team. That’s a fair assessment. The Cowboys also face Texas Tech and Houston, a pair of Big 12 contenders that many are picking among the Top 3 teams in the league.

While building strength of schedule off last year’s records is less useful in the transfer portal era, it’s worth look at how Oregon’s overall record can skew last year’s aggregate record of OSU’s opponents:

With Oregon — 79-72

Without Oregon — 66-70

The same could be said that Murray State’s 1-11 record skews it the other way. Murray State and Tulsa only won five combined games last year, three more than Oregon lost. The Ducks will be a tough game, no question. But when considering the Cowboys’ goals this year — reaching a bowl game and perhaps contending in the Big 12 — a win over loss to Oregon is unlikely to make it or break it.

So perhaps it’s better to just consider Oklahoma State’s nine conference games. Texas Tech and Houston won a combined 22 games last year and 14 combined Big 12 games. The aggregate record for the nine opponents is 61-51. But that’s including non-conference games. What happens when non-conference games are taken out of the equation?

The aggregate record drops to 37-43 in Big 12 action. That’s a better reflection of the difficulty of OSU’s conference schedule. But what happens if one removes Texas Tech and Houston? Then what is the aggregate record? It’s 23-39.

Oklahoma State’s schedule doesn’t look as imposing based on last year’s records. Four opponents were under .500 last year and two have second-year coaches. The other five were over .500 but two of them have new head coaches — Iowa State’s Jimmy Rogers and Kansas State’s Collin Klein. Combined the programs went 10-8 last year.

Any power conference schedule is tough. But is this schedule tied for the fifth toughest in the Big 12? Perhaps not. It looks like a competitive schedule where the Cowboys have real opportunities to finish with a winning record where the difficulty is skewed by three games. At least that’s how it looks when one does the math.

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