The Best-Case Scenario For the 2026 Oklahoma State Cowboys
In this story:
Until the Oklahoma State Cowboys start winning more football games, the narrative will be hard to shake.
OSU is coming off an 1-11 season in 2025.
OSU is 4-20 in the last two seasons.
OSU hasn’t won a Big 12 game since the 2023 season.
There is no more Mike Gundy. He was fired after three games last season. It’s now Eric Morris and nearly 90 new players trying to turn around a program that reached the Big 12 title game twice in three years from 2021-23.
There are certainly reasons to be concerned going into 2026. But, for now, let’s be optimistic. What if everything works out this season? What if the tide really does turn and the Cowboys start winning again?
Here is the best-case scenario for 2026.
First Three Games: 2-1
Games: at Tulsa, Sept. 5; vs. Oregon, Sept. 12; vs. Murray State, Sept. 19
This part of the schedule feels clear. The Cowboys should be more talented this year and should be highly motivated to beat the Golden Hurricane on the road. For many of the new players, it’s their first game in a power conference uniform. For the holdovers, they want revenge, pure and simple.
It would take a near-miracle for the Cowboys to beat Oregon. That game will be measured more by how much OSU loses by and how they lose. Oklahoma State has never played Murray State, and the FCS school won one game last year. That contest should be a blowout. Anything less than that is a problem.
Second Three Games: 2-1
Games: at West Virginia, Sept. 26; vs. UCF, Oct. 10; at Houston, Oct. 17
The West Virginia game is tricky. Morgantown is a tough place to play and the Mountaineers, like the Cowboys, should be better this year. That said, it’s a 50/50 game for both teams and OSU should be hyped for this game because it’s their first chance to snap the 18-game Big 12 losing streak. UCF is a similar type of game, but the Cowboys get the Knights at home. The QB matchup in this game will be hyped up all week. Both games are winnable.
Houston is the tough one. It’s on the road, the Cougars are a Top 3 team in the league and have a great blend of continuity and talented transfers. This will be OSU’s toughest game in the first half of the schedule after Oregon. If OSU comes out of this stretch 2-1, it will be 4-2 and 2-1 in league action. It looks doable.
Third Three Games: 2-1
Games: vs. Colorado, Oct. 24; at Iowa State, Oct. 31; at Kansas State, Nov. 7
OSU should be favored against Colorado, especially if the best-case scenario holds after six games. The Cowboys seem more talented on paper and, even with all the transfers, seem like they’re on the same page more than the Buffaloes. The road games are tricky. Both teams have new head coaches and significant turnover. The Cowboys will probably be slight underdogs going into both games and Manhattan has of late been a house of horrors for the Cowboys. Still, OSU can match up with both teams.
Since this is best-case scenario, the Cowboys split, beating Iowa State and losing to Kansas State. That puts them at 6-3 and 4-2 in league action with three games left.
Final Three Games: 1-2
Games: vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 14; at Arizona State, Nov. 21; vs. Kansas, Nov. 28
This is where the Cowboys are likely to stumble after a season of relatively good vibes to this point. The Tech game will be huge for many reasons. The Red Raiders are the favorite to win the league. There’s the obvious offseason stuff. Plus, Morris is a Shallowater, Texas, native, which is near Lubbock, played and coached at Texas Tech. OSU will probably be an underdog here and if Tech is the team everything thinks it will be, the Cowboys will make to close but fall short.
That loss probably has some carry over to the trip to Tempe to face Arizona State. That’s becoming a harder place to play under coach Kenny Dillingham, and he has a team that can contend for the Big 12 title game again. The finale at home against Kansas should give OSU a good chance to win and end the season with a victory. That puts the Cowboys on track for a bowl game with a record of 7-5 and 5-4 in Big 12 play.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
Follow PostinsPostcard