Three Bold Predictions for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oregon in Week 2
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys will need to play a near-perfect game to upend No. 6 Oregon in their home opener on Saturday.
The Cowboys (0-1) are coming of a 24-10 loss to Tulsa, a team that beat them in Stillwater last year and triggered Mike Gundy’s firing as head coach. Eric Morris flipped nearly the entire roster but is looking for his first win as OSU head coach.
Oregon (1-0) is coming off a 34-27 win over Boise State. Oregon has never played in Stillwater before and they're the first Big Ten team to ever visit Oklahoma State. The Ducks have won at least 10 games in every year of head coach Dan Lanning’s tenure, and they've been to the College Football Playoff each of the last two years.
I’m not bold enough to predict a Cowboys victory. But here are three bold predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and the Ducks.
OSU Will Be Within Two Scores at Halftime
Based on last week's game some Cowboys fans would look at that and scoff. But let's also rewind to last year's game in Eugene. Oregon was up 41-3 at the break and route to 69-3 win. Down by two scores or less at the break this year would be a win.
I don't think the Ducks are going to score that many points nor do I think the final score will be as lopsided. Teams tend to make their biggest improvements between Week 1 and Week 2 and the Cowboys gave Morris his staff plenty of tape to parade in front of them to get them to improve.
My guess is the Cowboys are going to be more efficient on offense, convert more third downs and trust the run a bit more than last week. The defense will likely turn to more blitzing to get early pressure on quarterback Dante Moore. Maybe if forces a turnover, maybe not. But OSU just wants to get Oregon off the field on third down.
Compared to halftime a year ago, I think Cowboys fans will be in a better mood.
Drew Mestemaker Will Throw for At Least 300 Yards
That really shouldn't be a bold prediction. But based on how he played last week it does seem bullish. Mestemaker threw for 244 yards last week against Tulsa and committed three turnovers. In addition, he completed fewer than 60% of his passes. It was one of the worst performances of his collegiate career.
There's little doubt he'll be motivated to improve upon it. I also think Morris will scheme the offense to manufacture more pocket protection for him, including putting him on the move in designed plays. That seems a given considering the left tackle situation. Mestemaker isn’t fleet of foot, but he has better pocket presence than he showed a week ago.
He’s also proven to have a short memory. He doesn’t dwell on bad games. He improves, based on his history. OSU will establish the run enough to allow him to get the ball downfield, something he was unable to do last week.
OSU Will Create Two Turnovers
Boise State gave Oregon plenty of trouble last week. That includes in turnovers where the Broncos didn’t give up the ball and the Ducks committed one turnover. Oregon was loose with the football at times and that could open avenues for the Cowboys to force them into a mistake or two.
I believe Oklahoma State is going to force two turnovers on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if LaDainian Fields picked off his second pass in as many games and I wouldn't be surprised if the other turnover came on special teams coverage. Oklahoma State has been emphasizing turnover creation throughout fall camp. It just didn’t pay off against Tulsa.
Forcing two turnovers may not help the Cowboys win this game. But to have any chance they have to win the turnover game and my gut says they're going to be able to force at least two turnovers Against a team as talented as Oregon, that’s bold.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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