What Wins, What Loses Game for Oklahoma State Against Texas Tech in 2026
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in what could be a key Big 12 showdown on Nov. 14.
The Cowboys are starting over under new head coach Eric Morris, who takes over for Mike Gundy after he was dismissed last year. OSU was 1-11 in 2025 and 3-9 in 2024. Oklahoma State is looking for a turnaround.
Texas Tech is the defending Big 12 champions after beating BYU in last year’s title game and reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time. The Red Raiders are looking for a repeat performance.
Here is what wins and what loses the game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
What Wins the Game for Oklahoma State
Turnovers
This is liable to be an offensive showdown. Both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech like to score points, and both teams have reasonably comparable talent at the skill positions. That puts both defenses in a bind. This is a game where the losing team could end up with more than 400 yards of total offense with 30 or more points. So how do you overcome that?
Turnovers. Oklahoma State must win that battle. They need to limit their own and force Texas Tech into mistakes that cause change of possession. The Cowboys need a plus-2 turnover margin in this one to have a good chance to win.
Win On the Edge
Where Texas Tech has an edge going into the season is on the offensive line. While the Cowboys are cobbling together a new group of players, the Red Raiders have three returning starters up front — left tackle Howard Sampson, center Sheridan Wilson and right tackle Caleb Ponton. Those are the right positions to have experience.
So the Cowboys are going to have to be solid at the pass rush by this point in the season. The track record should be there, if players like Jaleel Johnson, James Williams, DeSean Brown and Keviyan Huddleston step into the roles as hoped. If the Cowboys can win the battle on the edge and get pressure on the quarterback early, they’ll be in great shape.
What Loses the Game for Oklahoma State
Falling Behind Early
In year’s past, falling behind the Red Raiders early in the game wasn’t necessarily a death sentence. The program wasn’t good defensively and teams could play their way back into the game, especially a team like Oklahoma State, which runs the Air Raid.
But now? That’s not the case. Texas Tech had a terrific defense last season. Some of that was due to an influx of transfers like edge rusher David Bailey. But five starters are back, including linebacker Ben Roberts and safety Brenden Jordan. The Red Raiders pulled Kansas State linebacker Austin Romaine out of the transfer portal, along with talented edge rusher Trey White from San Diego State.
The Red Raiders have the talent to maintain a double-digit lead. OSU can’t let them run and hide early.
Losing Offensive Balance
Because the Cowboys run the Air Raid, the temptation is to believe that all the offense does is throw the ball. Well, that’s not the case. The Cowboys can be a good running team with Caleb Hawkins starting behind that offensive line. He produced nearly 1,500 rushing yards at North Texas last year playing for Morris and alongside quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
Game like this are all about trying to get an offense out of balance. The Red Raiders are going to want to put the ball game in the hands of one side of the defense because it makes teams like OSU easier to defend. The Cowboys must make sure they don’t lose that balance and remain committed to their identity.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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