Oregon's Way-Too-Early NCAA Tournament Prediction Will Surprise Fans

The Oregon Ducks are looking to bounce back from one of their worst season under coach Dana Altman.

Feb 9, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman reacts to a play against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Despite coming off one of their worst seasons under coach Dana Altman, the Oregon Ducks are receiving high praise for their chances of having a bounce-back year. According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi’s first bracketology projections of the offseason, the Ducks are projected to be the first team out in next season’s NCAA Tournament.

Other teams joining the Ducks in the first four out include the Oklahoma Sooners, Providence Friars, and Xavier Musketeers. This projection may come as a surprise to some Oregon fans, as last season the Ducks ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten, finishing with a 12-20 overall record and going 5-15 in Big Ten play. 

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman talks with forward Dezdrick Lindsay (4) against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

However, if last season’s college basketball season taught fans anything, it’s that comeback seasons are possible, especially in the age of NIL and the transfer portal. 

Oregon lost several key pieces this offseason as star center Nate Bittle wrapped up his remarkable Ducks career this past season. The Ducks also lost star guard Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans Jr. to the transfer portal. 

Oregon's Transfer Portal Addition Looks to Improve Roster

Feb 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman reacts against the Southern California Trojans in the first half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Nine players from Oregon’s 2026-27 roster have entered the transfer portal since the season's conclusion, and several of them have already found new schools for next year. 

Following losses in the transfer portal, the Ducks brought in several talented pieces in hopes of having a bounce-back season. Notable additions at the guard position for the Ducks next season include Jerry Easter II (USC), Tyrone Riley IV (San Francisco), and Jasper Johnson (Kentucky).

Riley from the Dons is a top player to watch for the Ducks as he looks to lead Oregon's backcourt. Last season with San Francisco, Riley led the Dons, averaging 12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. 

Jan 24, 2026; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Francisco Dons guard Tyrone Riley IV (5) celebrate a three-pointer against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

Easter from USC was a key depth piece for a depleted Trojans backcourt last season. In his freshman season with the Trojans, Easter averaged 4.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game. 

Oregon also added three forwards in the transfer portal, adding Pharaoh Compton (San Diego State), Taylor Boi Bowen (Alabama), and Andrew Meadow (Boise State). Entering the 2026 season, Meadow from Boise State is a player to watch for the Ducks, as last year with the Broncos, he averaged 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. 

What Oregon's Transfer Portal Haul Means for NCAA Tournament Hopes

Nov 24, 2023; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Boise State Broncos forward Andrew Meadow (13) drives to the hoop past Virginia Commonwealth Rams forward Toibu Lawal (10) in the second half during the ESPN Events Invitational Consolation game 2 at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

With a total of six portal commits, Oregon’s 2026 transfer class is ranked No. 38 nationally, per 247Sports. Seven Big Ten teams rank ahead of the Ducks in the transfer portal rankings, with the Indiana Hoosiers (No. 3) and the defending national champions, the Michigan Wolverines (No. 9), ranked inside the top 10. 

Oregon has missed the tournament for two consecutive years under Altman, with the most recent one from the 2021-22 to 2022-23 seasons. Last season was the first time that the Ducks finished with a losing record under Altman, and some fans fear that trend may continue heading into the 2026-27 season.  

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