Predicting Oregon’s Full NCAA Tournament Path

Predicting the Oregon Ducks full NCAA Tournament path after the full bracket was released on Selection Sunday.

Oregon coach Kelly Graves call to his team during the first half against Nebraska Feb. 19, 2026. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks women's basketball team is set for the big dance as a No. 8 seed in March Madness. The Ducks have never won the NCAA Tournament before, but they will be hoping to do so this season despite being a heavy underdog.

The Ducks currently have a record of 22-12, and their most recent game was a loss against Michigan. in the Big Ten Tournament. As the No. 8 seed in Region Three, Oregon will begin their tournament on Friday, March 20 against No. Virginia Tech in Austin, Texas. Here is an honest prediction of the Ducks' path.

Oregon women's coach Kelly Graves leave the court after the loss to Ohio State at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene Feb. 8, 2026. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 8 Oregon Defeats No. 9 Virginia Tech

The Oregon Ducks have a ton of talent that has shown time and time again that they are dominant on the offensive side of the basketball.

The Ducks are more sound as a team than Virginia Tech, but they have to take on one of the tougher guard-forward combos in the class. That duo is Virginia Tech guard Carleigh Wenzel, who is averaging 15.3 points per game, and Virginia Tech forward Carys Baker, who is averaging over 14 points per game.

Oregon Ducks head coach Kelly Graves high-fives Oregon Ducks forward Mia Jacobs (1) on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is one of the more intriguing matchups in the country when it comes to the round of 64. This is a game where the Ducks will have the chance to put the Hokies away early, but they will likely have an issue doing so. Oregon will likely have a fight for four quarters and will need as much production as they can get from star forward Mia Jacobs.

Jacobs has a better three-point percentage than star guard Katie Fiso, who leads the team in scoring. Jacobs is averaging a 35.5 shooting percentage from behind the arc and will be one of the better three-level scorers in this game. She can be a difference-maker as she will help lead the Ducks to a victory over the Hokies.

This is a game that will likely end in a 91-84 final after some late free throws for the Ducks. This advances them to the Round of 32, where they will play against either the No. 1 Texas program or the winner of the No. 16-seeded game between SFA and Missouri State.

No. 1 Texas Defeats No. 8 Oregon

Mar 8, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Madison Booker (35) moves the ball against South Carolina Gamecocks guard Raven Johnson (25) during the first half at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns will end the Oregon Ducks' season, as they are one of the toughest teams to play, especially early in the tournament. The Longhorns have all the talent in the world, which is why they were able to defeat a very tough South Carolina Gamecocks team in the SEC conference championship.

The difference in this game will be from one player. That player is Texas Longhorns forward Madison Booker, who is averaging nearly 19 points per game, while still being able to bring in a team-high 6.5 rebounds per game. The Ducks will have a problem trying to stop her, but will still get some points up that leaves a lasting impression on people looking at Texas's defense.

Texas will win this game 88-72, which ends the Ducks season in the round of 32.

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