AP Top 25 Poll Prediction After Multiple Ranked Losses

How will the AP Top 25 Poll shake out with the month of October arriving?

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall gets off the buss during gator walk before an NCAA football game against Mississippi at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 26, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

After another exciting weekend of college football, how will the AP Top 25 Poll shake out when it is released on Sunday?

Week 5 of the college football season produced multiple near upsets, but the biggest result was No. 25 Missouri dominating No. 8 Florida as the SEC pecking order continues to shuffle. No. 7. Alabama took care of No. 16 Mississippi State on the road, scoring 56 points against the Bulldogs, in game that should impact the top 25 rankings.

The No. 15 Oregon Ducks enjoyed a bye week on Saturday, Oct. 3, but coach Dan Lanning and his team could be moving up slightly on Sunday. No. 14 Iowa fell to No. 5 Ohio State at home, and the Hakeyes are expected to fall down the AP Poll after picking up their first loss.

Oregon running back Dierre Hill Jr., left, celebrates a long run as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Working in the Ducks favor are wins for No. 18 USC over Washington and No. 22 Boise State over Utah State, as Oregon's ranked wins should also stay ranked if not move up the AP Poll.

AP Top 25 Poll Projection

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Alabama
7. Indiana
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
10. BYU
11. Texas Tech
12. Utah
13. Missouri
14. Oregon
15. Tennessee
16. USC
17. Oklahoma State
18. Houston
19. Iowa
20. Florida
21. SMU
22. Boise State
23. UCLA
24. Mississippi State
25. Kentucky

A few teams survived close calls, making the latest AP Poll an interesting one to predict. With conference play beginning, how much will teams be punished, if at all, for ugly losses?

Will No. 10 BYU fall at all after beating TCU by a touchdown? Oregon fell after beating Boise State by the same margin in week 1, and the Ducks fell multiple spots in the AP Poll. Will the Cougars receive the benefit of the doubt for surviving and advancing from AP voters, or will BYU see its positioning drop slightly?

North Carolina kept things close against No. 3 Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish likely remain in the top five

Oct 3, 2026; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Will Stein directs his team against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No. 24 Kentucky survived South Carolina in overtime to move to 4-1 on the season as former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein is one win away from matching the Wildcats' total number of victories in 2025. Kentucky may remain ranked but which teams could enter the AP Top 25 Poll?

Minnesota upset Minnesota, but the Golden Gophers are unlikely to crash the rankings quite yet. Nebraska sits at 5-0 and is yet to be ranked, and Wisconsin was the team receiving the 26th-most votes in the latest AP Poll release.

Instead of teams entering the top 25, there could be one or two programs that drop out of the rankings with Mississippi State and Florida falling on Sunday.

This article will be updated when the AP Poll is released at approximately 11 a.m. PT.

AP Top 25 Poll

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Miami
5. Ohio State
6. Indiana
7. Alabama
8. Florida
9. Ole Misss
10. BYU
11. LSU
12. Texas Tech
13. Utah
14. Iowa
15. Oregon
16. Mississippi State
17. Tennessee
18. USC
19. Oklahoma State
20. Houston
21. SMU
22. Boise State
23. UCLA
24. Kentucky
25. Missouri

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.