Analytical Rankings Put High Expectations on Oregon for Upcoming Season

The Oregon Ducks enter the 2026 college football season with high expectations. Oregon is coming off back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances and there’s no reason think that streak will end after seeing their ESPN SP+ metrics.

Oregon's SP+ Ranking

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning ESPN Rankings College Football Playoff Big Ten Ohio State Buckeyes Dante Moore Recruiting Returning — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning looks to the clock towards the end of the first half as the Oregon Ducks face the Ohio State Buckeyes Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s SP+ rankings take factors into account such as players retuning to a team, how that team did in recent years, their recruiting rankings, and how much their coaching staff changed. Oregon is ranked as the second high team, only being behind the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Ducks’ SP+ is 28.3. Ahead of them is Ohio State at 31.8. Behind Oregon at No. 3 are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with an SP+ of 25.8.

Oregon has been right in the thick of the national championship chase for the past 2-3 seasons. They weren’t ranked higher than No. 3 in SP+ in any of these seasons. The fact that they’re No. 2 this season could be a good sign.

Key Returning Player

When it comes to retuning players, the Ducks have arguably their most important player from 2025 coming back. Quarterback Dante Moore started all 15 games for Oregon in 2025, leading them to an overall record of 13-2 and an appearance in a playoff semifinal.

Moore threw for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. It was unknown if Moore would return to Eugene for the 2026 season as most 2026 NFL Mock Draft projections had him going early in the first round. He decided that it would be better to return to college for one more season to develop before making the jump to the next level.

That’s good news for Oregon and a reason to feel confident about the offense this season.

Recent Success

Oregon has got closer to the national championship game in each of coach Dan Lanning’s four seasons. They just missed the playoff in 2023, made the quarterfinal in 2024, and made the semifinal in 2025.

Lanning is still a young coach and has room to grow. Him getting his team further each season bodes well for 2026. If that pattern continues, Oregon will be in the title game in 2026.

Recruiting

The Ducks have been a recruiting machine. According to On3, Oregon’s 2024, 2025, and 2026 recruiting classes have all been ranked top four in the entire country.

They had multiple freshmen step in an contribute in 2025 such as cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. and wide receiver Dakorien Moore.

Will five-star recruits in their 2026 recruiting class such as offensive tackle Immanuel Iheanacho, tight end Kendre Harrison, safety Jett Washington, and wide receiver Jalen Lott step in right away and have roles?

Coaching Changes

While Lanning is back for year five, Oregon’s sideline will look a lot different in 2026. They lost offensive coordinator Will Stein and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi to head coaching jobs.

Lanning hired within and promoted Drew Mehringer to offensive coordinator and Chris Hampton to defensive coordinator for the 2026 season.

It will be interesting to see if there’s a drop off or if Mehringer and Hampton will pick right up where Stein and Lupoi left off.

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