Oregon Ducks' Win Over USC Drives Rising College Football Playoff Chances

The Oregon Ducks leaped back inside the AP Poll top 15 after knocking off then-No. 12 USC.

And the Ducks won in emotional fashion after losing star quarterback Dante Moore to a scary targeting injury. So the 41-27 romp over the Trojans places Oregon at No. 15 now in the national top 25 rankings after falling to 20th before the Big Ten Conference opener.

But that jump won't be the only thing that Duck fans will love.

New Playoff Predictions Favor Oregon

Oregon Ducks Dierre Hill Jr. Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Big Ten Conference College Football Dan Lanning Dante Moore — Oregon running back Dierre Hill Jr., left, celebrates a long run as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

A loss to USC would have severely damaged Oregon's hopes of landing in the 2026 College Football Playoffs. It would've meant needing to win out and finish 10-2, with or without earning a Big Ten title game bid.

But now fans of the Ducks can breathe a sigh of relief thanks to the Sept. 26 win. Plus, like these new postseason percentage rankings that were released on Sept. 28, Oregon now holds a 41 percent chance of landing in the 12-team playoff tournament per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which hands the Ducks the 11th-best odds of making it in.

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning USC Trojans College Football Big Ten Conference Big Ten Conference Dan Lanning Dante Moore — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the sideline as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This simulation makes Oregon the third Big Ten team to make it into the playoffs. Defending national champion Indiana, which eliminated the Ducks during the semifinals, holds the highest chance among conference teams at 69 percent.

Meanwhile, Ohio State follows slightly behind the Hoosiers with a 68 percent probability. The Buckeyes, like the Ducks, needed to overcome one major early-season loss already. But fell to nationally-ranked top five foe Texas in week two out in Austin. That loss came during the same week Oklahoma State took down the Ducks.

But Oregon is alive and kicking in the race to land inside the 12-team postseason once again. Lanning has already produced back-to-back playoff teams since the expansion of the December playoffs. But Oregon went further last season in trouncing James Madison and Texas Tech, the latter inside Hard Rock Stadium for the Orange Bowl.

How Oregon Can Further Boost its Playoff Chances

Dierre Hill Jr. USC Trojans Oregon Ducks Dante Moore Dylan Raiola Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Big Ten Conference — Oregon running back Dierre Hill Jr. carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Each game gets larger from here for the Ducks. The next non-conference game likely won't be until after the Big Ten Championship contest, assuming that Oregon clinches a bowl bid or playoff appearance.

But the more Oregon wins, the increased likelihood the Ducks will have in landing at Indianapolis come Dec. 5 inside Lucas Oil Stadium, and beyond that. Oregon has a ranked foe to look forward to next after the huge USC win.

No. 23 UCLA looks vastly improved and will be thinking about an upset inside Autzen Stadium on Oct. 10. But Lanning and the Ducks know the Bruins' head coach well. Former James Madison leader Bob Chesney now coaches the Bruins and immediately has them playing at a high level.

Oregon then won't see another ranked foe until Nov. 7, when the Ducks travel to Columbus to face No. 5 Ohio State. That road contest will more than likely crystallize who goes to Indy and the playoffs. But Oregon steadily is increasing its postseason hopes following Moore's frightening injury and withstanding USC.

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