5 Reasons to Believe Penn State Can Exceed Expectations in 2026

The Nittany Lions have the quarterback and the schedule to make a run at the College Football Playoff.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to throw a pass on the run during practice at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State is ranked 17th overall in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, which are predictive measurements of efficiency and a good gauge of a team's potential. The ratings have the Nittany Lions at sixth in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, USC and Michigan. 

ESPN also ranks Penn State 14th in offense, 23rd in defense and sixth in special teams — which seems accurate given the team’s personnel. 

Other ESPN ranking systems, such as its College Football Power Index, give the Nittany Lions’ an estimated record of 9.0-3.2, a 22 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 4.5 percent chance to win the Big Ten and 0.8 percent chance to win the national championship. 

How can Penn State exceed these expectations? We dived into five reasons the Nittany Lions could rise above this season.

Rocco Becht is healthy and clutch

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht tosses a medicine ball during a relay race at the 23rd annual Lift for Life at Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

A healthy Becht is the most important player on Penn State’s roster by far. But the Nittany Lions need more than two good shoulders from Becht. They need him to be the 2024 quarterback who threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns in leading Iowa State to the Big 12 championship game.

Becht led Iowa State to several comeback wins in 2024, notably a rally to remain undefeated against UCF. “I always say nobody's had more game-winning touchdown drives on the last drive of a game than what Rocco Becht has in college football,” Campbell said.

Penn State is going to get into some nerve-testers this season. Becht is the best equipped to get them out.

Returning Nittany Lions take the next step

Penn State defensive end Max Granville talks with reporters during a media availability in State College. | Mark Wogenrich/Penn State on SI

The perception of Penn State’s 2026 team is that it’s just Iowa State 2.0. But it’s easy to get too consumed by the thought of 24 former Cyclones joining the Nittany Lions. 

Penn State returns multiple key contributors from the 2025 squad, with plenty of them being young and ready to develop. Some quick names are cornerbacks Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph, offensive lineman Cooper Cousins, receiver Koby Howard and defensive ends Yvan Kemajou and Max Granville.

Many of them can grow into high-impact players. Dixson could be the next lockdown Penn State corner, Howard could turn into a premier wide receiver and Kemajou and Granville need to sprout into elite pass-rushers. 

If any of them become a star, the Nittany Lions will easily surpass their 2026 projections. 

Penn State finds its way at wide receiver

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Koby Howard gains yards after catch during the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl against the Clemson Tigers at Yankee Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State lacks a bona fide stud receiver on its roster. And it might be the difference between being a playoff team or a 7-5 disappointment.

But Penn State doesn’t need a star so much as a go-to receiver in crunch time. That might be Chase Sowell, a fifth-year senior who is playing for his fourth team. Or it could be tight end Ben Brahmer, who has 50-catch potential.

But we’re watching Howard, a sophomore with loads of potential that needs to be tapped. He has the makeup to be an elite wide receiver. He’s fast, shifty, has strong hands and is dynamic over the middle of the field. 

Howard emerged as a reliable target for former Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer in the final weeks of the 2025 season, totaling seven receptions in nine games for 133 yards. 
Terry Smith tried to get Howard more touches during the second half of his stint as interim head coach in 2025. Howard is ready to make the leap this season.

“I always felt like I was ready last season,” Howard said. “I’m even more ready this year.”

The defensive line is average at worst

Penn State Nittany Lions players go through a scrimmage at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Nittany Lions’ secondary and linebacker cores are up there with the best in the Big Ten. Dixson has shown lockdown traits, linebacker Tony Rojas has flashed elite speed and skill and safety Marcus Neal Jr. is as well-rounded as it gets. 

But the defensive line really makes or breaks a defense. For Penn State, the edge depth is thin, and the tackles are largely unproven. If that unit is even average, the defense could be dominant given the talent of the surrounding position groups. 

If the line struggles, coverages will likely break down, which will keep coordinator D’Anton Lynn guessing on most downs. A good front can hide a bad secondary, but a good secondary can’t hide a struggling defensive line. 

Returning edge rushers Kemajou and Granville have potential to be game-breakers. Defensive tackle Armstrong Nnodim has the highest ceiling on Penn State’s defense. But how will it all come together?  

The Nittany Lions take advantage of their schedule

Fireworks are seen over Beaver Stadium before the 2025 White Out game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Until the 2025 meltdown, James Franklin had a three-year run in which his team did not lose a regular-season game as the favorite. From 2022 through the 2025 non-conference schedule, Penn State won 34 straight games as the favorite. Campbell has an opportunity to do the same with this schedule.

The Nittany Lions should be favored in eight games. They’ll probably be underdogs at Michigan and Washington. The other two games (home vs. USC and Minnesota) are TBA. This is a schedule upon which Penn State can capitalize, as long as it takes care of its business as the favorite.

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