How Long Will Matt Campbell Need to Make Penn State a Playoff Team?

The Nittany Lions enter 2026 with a reimagined program but the same College Football Playoff expectations.

A general view of the scoreboard at Beaver Stadium as Matt Campbell is announced as the Penn State Nittany Lions' new head coach. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State is 25-2 all-time against Indiana, which nevertheless will play in a College Football Playoff championship game before the Nittany Lions. The unbeaten Hoosiers, which needed a Heisman Trophy moment from Fernando Mendoza to beat Penn State, meet Miami in Monday's CFP title game, a wistful what-if moment for the Nittany Lions.

That was supposed to be Penn State, at least in August. Instead, the 2025 Nittany Lions staff and roster has splintered across the country, with 50 players and 11 coaches, including James Franklin, leaving State College.

Yet Matt Campbell still arrived from Iowa State with a manadate: to rebuild Penn State as quickly as possible into a championship contender. Campbell, who spent 10 seasons at Iowa State, has access to more resources and a broader recruiting reach but also more expectations.

So when can Penn State reasonably expect to contend for a second College Playoff bid? And is the 2026 season too soon? Here's what to expect from Campbell and the Nittany Lions.

Understanding expectations

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell, left, and Athletic Director Pat Kraft pose during a news conference at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Campbell and Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft posed for happy photos at Beaver Stadium in early December, after Kraft's lengthy search (which some media labeled a "disaster") yielded a yes from the 10-year Iowa State head coach. Then Kraft sent Campbell to the lions.

"Look," Kraft said, "there were a lot of turns, and I appreciate the media speculating and putting things out there every step of the way that were true or not true. But we got the guy. We really got the guy ... who is going to lead us to a national championship and bring us back to the best program in the country."

And with that, Campbell took over a program not interested in a rebuild, despite what the roster turnover might say. Prior to Curt Cignetti taking over in 2024, Indiana had never won 10 games in a season. And clearly Penn State has higher expectations of Campbell than Indiana had of Cignetti then.

"We know what the expectations are here at Penn State," Campbell said. "It’s been laid for a long time. You can’t have those expectations without the habits and the daily process it takes to get there. That’s what you’re going to hear me talk about.

"I know what the expectations are. I want those expectations. ... Sacrificing the future for one day or one season, we’re really going to have to be smarter than everybody and to walk a fine line."

Major changes to start

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht (3) after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Beyond building a new coaching staff (Campbell retained three Penn State assistants, including Terry Smith), Campbell had to overhaul the team. Penn State lost 72 players from its 2025 roster, 50 of whom entered the transfer portal.

He did so by signing 39 transfers, tied with UCLA for the Big Ten's largest portal class, according to 247Sports. Campbell recruited 23 of those players from Iowa State, including three-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be the team's centerpiece.

Campbell also has received commitments from nine members of his 2026 Iowa State recruiting class, bringing more familiarity with him to Penn State. But as a result, Penn State turned over nearly half its roster in the portal.

An offense ready to go

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to pass during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Campbell essentially imported his offense from Iowa State to Penn State, which is a plus/minus. Campbell and Becht, who spent three years together running the Cyclones' offense, have developed a trust and short-hand language that will ease the transition for both. Campbell also called that one of his biggest strengths at Iowa State.

"To me, that’s been one of our great successes during our time at Iowa State is always being able to find a quarterback and develop a quarterback to be really special," he said.

Becht will have plenty of familiar tools at Penn State, including his top rusher (Carson Hansen) top two receivers (Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen) and leading tight end (Benhamin Brahmer). Then he'll mix in Penn State's top returning players in tight end Andrew Rappleyea, receiver Koby Howard and linemen Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins.

But Becht and offensive coordinator will have to upgrade that offense, which ranked 11th in the Big 12 in yards per play last season, against largely better Big Ten defenses.

Getting the defense up to speed

USC Trojans defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn reacts against the Utah State Aggies during the fourth quarter. | Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Penn State's defense has undergone the most change in the program. D'Anton Lynn replaces Jim Knowles, who liked to play three safeties and have his down linemen read and react. The former USC defensive coordinator likely will play more three-linebacker sets and prefers big run-stuffing tackles, underscored by UCLA transfers Siale Taupaki (6-4, 310 pounds) and Keanu Williams (6-5, 320).

But this defense will need time. Penn State essentially turned over its entire defensive line, losing 12 players to the portal and three to the NFL. Six safeties left, including potential starters King Mack and Dejuan Lane. Middle linebacker Amare Campbell, the team's leading tackler, chose to transfer to Tennessee.

Smith's return as cornerbacks coach helped solidify that room, as Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph chose to return. However, Lynn will be working with a new staff and a new depth chart at his alma mater, making Penn State's defense the centerpiece of next season's transition.

Money to spend

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell, left, speaks with Athletic Director Pat Kraft during a press conference at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Campbell said he had the nation's lowest-paid roster at Iowa State last season and probably three-fourths of Penn State's budget. Asked in December how much more money he'll have at Penn State, Campbell said, "All of it."

In Year 1, Campbell appears to be spending that money on repopulating Penn State's roster rather than targeting high-end assets. Becht was the highest-ranked player in the portal (No. 34 overall, according to 247Sports) whom Penn State signed.

Campbell didn't (or hasn't yet) get a high-priced pass-rusher or recevier during the January portal window. That's something Kraft wanted to see more of from Franklin. It's likely to be something Campbell will prioritize after this season.

"It’s great to have the money, but it’s using the money wisely," Campbell said. "It’s using the resources correctly, building the right team and knowing what you’re trying to spend those things on and making sure it’s about the right things."

A friendly schedule

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Andrew Rappleyea (87) makes a catch as Clemson Tigers linebacker Jeremiah Alexander (35) defends during the first half of the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Campbell became Penn State's head coach at the right time, as the 2026 schedule mirrors what Cignetti had in his first year at Indiana. Penn State does not play Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois or Iowa next season. All five teams won at least nine games, and three made the playoff.

The Nittany Lions visit Michigan (which also has a new head coach) and Washington, while the home schedule includes just one team (USC) that won nine games. This is a playoff friendly schedule right out of the gate for Campbell.

Not to say he gets Penn State there, but Campbell appears to be thinking about a playoff run in Year 1. Becht made that clear in an interview with ESPN's Pete Thamel after signing.

"We were listening to him talk yesterday, and something about him changed," Becht told Thamel. "He's got the resources and people behind him and a program behind him to do what he wants to do — compete for a national championship."

What happens next for Penn State? Stay on top of all the Nittany Lions news by subscribing to the Penn State on SI Daily Digest. The newsletter is your free daily window into Penn State sports.