NIL Isn't the Only Reason Penn State Might Struggle in College Football's New World

A confluence of financial forces are working against the Nittany Lions.

Penn State Nittany Lions athletic director Pat Kraft (right) speaks with head coach Matt Campbell (left) following the game against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the vast majority of Penn State’s history, there has never really been a question about the program’s ceiling. National titles spoke for themselves, and regular relevance in the sport made Penn State’s place in the upper tiers of college football a given, with no real reason to doubt its standing in the hierarchy.

A massive stadium, reliable attendance, a passionate and committed alumni base, nearly 100,000 season ticket holders, and, for a very long time, an iconic head coach had long been the bedrock that Penn State football stood on.

In many respects, these dynamics haven’t changed. Penn State still has a massive stadium, and while this season has not led to overwhelming attendance figures (save for the record-breaking White Out), Penn State fans are as reliable as ever when it comes to the long view of the program. Penn State has had bad seasons before, will have them again, and fans will be there along the way.

But a lot of other things have changed. NIL budgets are massive, and athletic department spending continues to grow. While not everything comes back to politics, Penn State’s push to raise ticket prices for a good portion of the stadium, with expensive donation figures attached to them, does not pair well with a state that joined a historic wave of Americans voting emphatically for, among other things, more affordability, according to exit polls.

Where Penn State stands in college football

A Penn State Nittany Lions fan holds up a Simba plush toy during the fourth quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Back to the question regarding Penn State’s place in the new college football landscape.

From an NIL perspective, the Big Ten recently passed a rule that caps program athletics NIL spending at just shy of $50 million, a figure ahead of Penn State’s reported NIL budget (football is at about $30 million all-in this year). It has seemed like a slog for the program to reach its peers in football, which ranks seventh in the Big Ten and is still a healthy distance behind many programs higher on the list.

Revenue sharing, ticket value increases and other initiatives might help bridge that gap. Penn State did raise more than $135 million in Beaver Stadium funding from philanthropy, but there is an inherent difference between paying for your name to be affixed to the stadium in perpetuity and a few hundred thousand going to an NIL budget for a team that may or may not turn out to be any good. 

If nothing else, Penn State has either chosen not to pursue highly competitive NIL funding or simply can’t find it. The first seems unlikely, which highlights the simple fact that Penn State can’t do this on its own. And in a world where wallets are tight, it’s not as simple as coughing up more money.

Earlier this week, there was a tweet from an account that is almost certainly run by someone operating a good number of rumor-starting pages suggesting that Penn State receiver Koby Howard might test the transfer portal waters in order to secure a larger NIL deal.

Regardless of the rumor-mongering, it does speak to the world that we find ourselves in that Howard leaving Penn State is not an absurd thing to wonder about. For decades, a player like Howard was a lock for a three- or four-year career, a marquee offensive weapon at a major Big Ten school. Transfers have always been part of the ecosystem, but never like this.

But now, it’s entirely possible that another team comes calling and with more money to offer than Penn State can, or wants to, match.

NIL isn’t the only reason Penn State might struggle in this new world. Tickets, a lifeblood to Penn State’s financial successes, have never been less affordable, the haves in the rest of the sport have never had more, and quite frankly Penn State hasn’t looked this rudderless as a team in just about a decade. Add in lukewarm recruiting and a smattering of uninspiring wins, and the optimism can be hard to come by.

For a very long time you could reliably say that Penn State was never going to fall past a certain point in the landscape, and to a certain extent that’s still true. But the question of how far Penn State can get above its ceiling remains to be seen, and the glass only appears to be getting thicker.

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