SEC Coach Climbing the List of Favorites for Penn State Job

Penn State is in the second month of its search to replace James Franklin, who has moved on to Virginia Tech.

Fireworks are seen prior to a game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | James Lang-Imagn Images

Penn State is reaching critical mass in its coaching search to replace James Franklin, who has started his new job at Virginia Tech. Franklin already has poached some staff members and is recruiting players from Penn State's 2026 class. So the Nittany Lions need a coach soon.

Who will that be? According to the Kalshi futures market, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz still leads the horse race, though an intriguing name has surfaced. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer now ranks second behind Drinkwitz, having climbed the board dramatically in recent days.

DeBoer has a 21 percent chance to be Penn State's next coach, according to Kalshi, up from just 4 percent on Nov. 17. DeBoer is now ahead of James Madison coach Bob Chesney (14 percent) and Georgia Tech coach Brent Key (12 percent). Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline is fifth at 9 percent.

RELATED: The pros and cons of hiring Brent Key at Penn State

DeBoer represents a major player in the Penn State search but also an long-shot hire. Alabama (8-2) is 10th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and pursuing a spot in the 12-team field. The Crimson Tide finish the regular season with games against Eastern Illinois on Saturday and the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn on Nov. 29.

Could Penn State flip Kalen DeBoer from Alabama?

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen Deboer looks on during warmups prior to the game against the LSU Tigers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. | David Leong-Imagn Images

Why would DeBoer leave Alabama in Year 2 with a potential playoff team? It's possible that the parties are stress-testing the limits of their expectations of each other. Though it beat Georgia in September, Alabama lost its first SEC game to Oklahoma, 23-21, and scored a season-low 20 points in win over LSU.

A loss to Auburn would end the Tide's playoff hopes. In Alabama, that's not acceptable, as ESPN's Paul Finebaum has said. He also suggested that Alabama's swagger is "gone."

"It's way too early to speculate, but Alabama has made everything complicated for itself," Finebaum said on this week's edition of The Matt Barrie Show. "They still have a path [to the playoff], ... but they don't have a lot of air to breathe right now."

Finebaum also pointed toward the quirky history of Alabama-Auburn games, even though Alabama has won five straight in the series.

"I really wonder about Alabama, because they were flat against LSU and against Oklahoma," Finebaum said. "They may rue the day they let that one get away. I don't mean to make too much out of history here, but the history of that Iron Bowl is pretty haunted."

RELATED: How long should Penn State wait to hire a new football coach?

How Penn State could capitalize

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft gives two thumbs up to the students following a Nittany Lions win at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

A source outside the Penn State program said that Athletic Director Pat Kraft placed two coaches high on his search list: DeBoer and Texas A&M's Mike Elko. The Aggies recently signed Elko to a contract extension. It's unclear how receptive DeBoer would be to the Penn State job.

DeBoer is in just his second season at Alabama. He's a South Dakota native who took the Alabama job after leading Washington to the College Football Playoff championship game. Prior to that, the farthest east DeBoer had worked was Eastern Michigan. The farthest south was Southern Illinois.

Penn State could pitch a better personal fit, though it doesn't have much time. The program had hoped to have a head coach in place by the early signing period, which begins Dec. 3. It definitely needs a coach in place when the transfer portal opens Jan. 2.

Alabama still has a 63 percent chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN, leaving Penn State to be strong-willed until at least mid-December. That represents quite a level of patience, particularly considering what Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith said.

Franklin already has begun bringing Penn State staff members to Virginia Tech, as expected. More importantly, though, he's recruiting the Nittany Lions' roster and 2026 class. Without a coach, Penn State is vulnerable.

"The immediate threat is to take Penn State players," Smith said. "With the uncertainty of the next head coach, ... the most important thing we can do is protect the locker room. When it comes to high school recruits, [Franklin] has an advantage right now because we don’t have a permanent head coach."

Then there's the money. According to USA Today, DeBoer's buyout from Alabama was nearly $61 million as of Jan. 1, 2025. Of course, buyouts are subject to change. Penn State recently negotiated a buyout of about $9 million with Franklin, though Alabama might not be so receptive.

In the meantime, Penn State hosts Nebraska on Saturday in its final home game of the season.

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