What ESPN's FPI Projections Say About Penn State's 2026 Season

The big event at Penn State's recent Lift For Life event was the medicine-ball throw. Players, notably quarterback Rocco Becht, tossed the weighted bags in a relay race to raise money and awareness for rare disease research. It was a noble pursuit and apt analogy regarding the 2026 Nittany Lions.

Penn State is going to strain this year throwing its new roster at a schedule that might reward the team for its effort. But the Nittany Lions also could be laboring to throw those medicine balls at a seven-win campaign.

For what it's worth, ESPN's College Football Power Index sees that effort being rewarded. The latest FP+ preseason rankings paint a fairly positive picture of the Nittany Lions, who have an attainable playoff path. So let's dig deeper into what the FP+ has to say about Penn State football in 2026.

ESPN FPI Ranking: 17

NEW: ESPN FPI ahead of the 2026 College Football Season📈📉https://t.co/ZX8MOnZxU2 pic.twitter.com/hfx54OWHPP
— On3 (@On3) July 9, 2026

The FPI has been a Penn State fan for several years. Even after a 7-6 season in 2025, the Nittany Lions ranked 16th, ahead of 12-win BYU and nine-win Big Ten teams Iowa, Michigan and Washington. Penn State was sixth in 2024 and fifth in 2023, when it went 10-3 and lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

This year's preseason ranking of 17 seems to better understand Penn State's situation. The Nittany Lions turned over more than half their roster, bringing in 55 new players, 24 of them from Iowa State. The latter number is drawing positive and negative reviews, considering that the Cyclones ranked 35th in the FPI last year.

Rocco Becht leads one of the Big Ten's most experienced rosters as the quarterback with the most returning FBS snaps. At No. 17, Penn State is exactly where it should be as a late-qualifying playoff team, especially with its schedule.

Projected record: 9-3.2

Matt Campbell joined #B1GToday to talk his transition to @PennStateFball and preparing for the upcoming season. pic.twitter.com/I7HLC24uzo
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) July 6, 2026

What's compelling about Penn State's ranking and record projection involves the teams it will play. Penn State's schedule certainly is friendly. Three Big Ten teams rank in the top six: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 4 Oregon and No. 6 Indiana. Penn State plays none of them during the regular season.

Of the Big Ten teams the Nittany Lions do play, USC is the highest-ranked at 13. But only USC, Michigan (15) and Washington (26) rank in the top 40 among Penn State's Big Ten opponents.

Penn State's non-conference opponents (Marshall, Temple and Buffalo) all rank below 100. Purdue isn't much higher at 71. This is credibly a nine-win schedule, and the FP+ gives the Nittany Lions a 95.8-percent chance of winning six games. That's a truly low bar.

Chance to make a bowl game: 95.8 percent

Penn State Nittany Lions players celebrate after defeating the Clemson Tigers in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. — Penn State Nittany Lions players celebrate with the George M. Steinbrenner Trophy after defeating the Clemson Tigers in the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Again, six wins should be a low bar for this team, no matter how many new faces Campbell's roster has. Campbell's Iowa State teams missed bowl-eligiblity jsut twice in his 10 seasons, one of those during an opening-year 3-9 rebuild in 2016.

Penn State has no room for that sort of rebuild this season, especially with the 2027 recruiting class going through an uneven patch. There should be seven nearly guaranteed wins on the schedule, with a series of show-me games against USC, Michigan, Washington, Minnesota and Northwestern deciding Penn State's fate.

Chance of winning the Big Ten: 4.5 percent

Penn State Nittany Lions coach Matt Campbell, left, speaks with Athletic Director Pat Kraft during a press conference. — Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell, left, speaks with Athletic Director Pat Kraft during a press conference at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The schedule makes a Penn State appearance in the Big Ten title game more possible than usual. However, that's where the Nittany Lions would have to face one of Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.

The first real test of this prediction should come Oct. 10, when the USC Trojans visit Beaver Stadium. Penn State likely will be 5-0 for this game, Campbell's first top-20 matchup as the team's head coach.

Chance of making the CFP: 22 percent

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht tosses a medicine ball during a relay race at the 23rd annual Lift For Life. — Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht tosses a medicine ball during a relay race at the 23rd annual Lift For Life at Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Penn State has the fifth-best odds of making the playoff in the Big Ten. To do that, the Nittany Lions will need to win 10 games and hope their schedule doesn't cost them an at-large bid. A split of the USC and Michigan games would give Penn State its strongest chance to qualify.

Chance to make the CFP title game: 2 percent

A general view of the trophy during media day for the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship. — A general view of the trophy during media day for the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship at Miami Beach Convention Center. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A properly subdued number, coupled with Penn State's .8 percent chance to win it all. The Nittany Lions aren't there yet.

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