The 5 Keys for Penn State to Unlock a College Football Playoff Bid in 2026

Penn State football coach Matt Campbell cautioned this spring that it was too early to tell whether his team could compete for a College Football Playoff berth. Campbell likes the roster he put together and evaluated its spring progress positively, but too many variables remain before the 2026 season.

"Are we ready? Are we capable? We had a lot of injuries, and a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum?" Campbell said after spring drills concluded. "I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it's going to have to be able to be its best.

"Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like, what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at."

The reference to being "a little lucky with injuries" is key for Penn State, which has little room to lose players, particularly at one key position. The Nittany Lions are +370 to make the playoff, according to FanDuel, nesting between Michigan and Florida in the odds. So there's some lifting to do. Let's start here.

1. Keep Rocco Becht healthy

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback coach Jake Waters talks with quarterback Rocco Becht during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Obviously stating the obvious, but Penn State's playoff pursuit rests largely on Becht's (previously) ailing shoulders. The quarterback had surgery in his non-throwing shoulder after the 2025 season and has had issues with his throwing shoulder as well. He played gamely but through pain for the second half of last season at Iowa State.

Becht can be as tough-as-nails as Campbell says he is, but his effectiveness has limits with injury. Worse, Penn State can't afford to lose its starting quarterback for any meaningful time or any of the most critical games on the Big Ten schedule.

Quarterback is Penn State's most compelling, and tenuous, position. Campbell and Becht are in the perfect spot to make noise at Penn State together. But behind the fourth-year starter is a redshirt freshman Alex Manske who has missed spring practice twice in his career, including this essential developmental spring at Penn State.

Then there's Division III transfer Connor Barry, a terrific story who still needs plenty of reps to be ready for a Big Ten schedule. Behind them are two true freshmen. Becht is the cornerstone of Penn State's playoff run. Without him, this is a six-win team.

2. Start the season 5-0

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell watches practice from behind the line of scrimmage at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Much has been, and will continue to be, made of Penn State's friendly schedule, which does not include Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa or Illinois. All five are playoff contenders, though FanDuel has set Illinois' odds at +2,500.

To win 10 games and have a playoff chance, Penn State must capitalize on that schedule. Which means starting the season 5-0 before hosting USC for the likely White Out on Oct. 10. Penn State should be favored for all five games against Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin and Northwestern.

Campbell's first Penn State road trip is a favorable visit to face Temple and Lincoln Financial Field, which will be a de facto home date for the Nittany Lions. Penn State opens the Big Ten season against Wisconsin, which won just two conference games last season.

The trickiest part of the first five weeks is the Friday, Oct. 2 game at Northwestern. The Nittany Lions will play the Wildcats on a short week to help open the program's rebuilt Ryan Field. They also lost to Northwestern at home last season, so the dunk isn't slammed.

However, Penn State has a nice runway into the season, which leads to the season's defining two-game stretch.

3. Win at Michigan

A view the Michigan Wolverines band signs before the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Penn State's playoff hopes will hinge on two weeks in October, when the team hosts USC before visiting Michigan on Oct. 17. Both could be night games. They will be two of the largest crowds of the college football season. And the Nittany Lions really have to win only one to maintain their playoff chances.

A win at Michigan, even against a team reinventing itself like Penn State, would be the crowning moment of Campbell's regular season. Penn State is 1-4 at Michigan Stadium since 2009, and that lone win was in the asterisked 2020 season. The Nittany Lions also have lost three straight to the Wolverines.

On a gettable schedule, Penn State most likely will face its biggest underdog point spread in Ann Arbor. Winning there would supercharge a playoff run, even after a potential loss to USC.

4. Develop a threatening Big Ten passing game

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Benjamin Brahmer runs with the ball during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's offensive strategy carries a run-first identity this season, especially with three complementary backs in Carson Hansen, James Peoples and Quinton Martin Jr. But the Nittany Lions need to accent that with a passing game capable of threatening opponents deep.

Penn State did not do that last season. The Nittany Lions ranked 94th nationally in pass plays of 20+ yards and 100th in completions of 30+ yards (Iowa State was marginally better at 72nd and 82nd).

Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser believes he has the assets to test secondaries. Receiver Chase Sowell called himself a vertical threat, as did fellow Iowa State transfer Brett Eskildsen, one of the team's fastest players. Returning sophomore Koby Howard averaged 19 yards per catch in 2025.

Penn State also has a potential 50-catch tight end in Ben Brahmer, who is landing on several preseason All-America teams. Becht could throw for 3,000 yards this season but needs more help from his receivers, and offensive coordinator, than Drew Allar had last year.

5. Cultivate a leading edge rusher

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Yvan Kemajou pressures Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback TJ Lateef. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State has ranked among the top five in the Big Ten in sacks over the last four seasons. Pass rush has been a defensive hallmark dating to Brent Pry. And even though it slipped under Jim Knowles last year, the Nittany Lions still made 32 sacks, 19 more than Iowa State, which finished near the bottom of the Big 12.

New defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has an immediate need to build a competent pass rush. That means identifying an alpha off the edge. Could be Colorado transfer Alexander McPherson, who had a terrific spring, or Iowa State transfer Ike Ezeogu, the team's biggest edge at 273 pounds.

Penn State also returns sophomore Yvan Kemajou, who stood out as a freshman, and Max Granville, who says he's finally healthy. Lynn can compensate by blitzing with players like linebacker Tony Rojas, safety Marcus Neal Jr. and cornerback Zion Tracy. But Penn State's defense will languish against stronger passing offenses without a legitmate threat off the edge.

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