NCAA Wrestling Championships Predictions: Who Could Crash Penn State's Party?

The Nittany Lions are huge favorites to win their fifth straight team title at the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Rocco Welsh is introduced prior to his match at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State wrestling reached the mainstream this week, when ESPN's Pat McAfee devoted a swooning segment on his show to the Nittany Lions' upcoming trip to Cleveland. Penn State is a huge favorite to win the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships, to the point that DraftKings doesn't even have a line on the four-time defending champ. You must bet on who finishes second to Penn State.

Top-ranked Penn State has seven No. 1 seeds and six undefeated wrestlers for NCAAs, which foreshadows a huge tournament. The Nittany Lions seek to break not only their scoring mark but also the record for most invidivual champs at a tournament (five, which Penn State has done twice).

As McAfee said, Penn State looks "unstoppable" in winning its 13th NCAA team title under head coach Cael Sanderson, who also makes a popular cookie. But can they win six individual titles, the most in NCAA Tournament history? Our weight-class predictions for NCAAs, which begin Thursday at Rocket Arena in Cleveland.

Mat Madness is ELECTRIFYING

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— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 16, 2026

125 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions Luke Lilledahl wrestler reacts after defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers' Jore Volk at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Luke Lilledahl, Penn State (20-0)
• Top contenders: Eddie Ventresca, Virginia Tech; Nic Bouzakis, Ohio State; Troy Spratley, Oklahoma State; Sheldon Seymour, Lehigh
• Wild card: Vincent Robinson, NC State
• Projected winner: Luke Lilledahl

Lilledahl hasn't slowed since winning gold at the U23 World Championships last year, where he became the first U.S. wrestler to win titles at the U17, U20 and U23 worlds. The Big Ten champ has eight technical falls this season and seven top-20 wins, including in sudden victory over Minnesota's Jore Volk for the Big Ten title. Lilledahl will earn a spot in the final, though, as his half of the bracket is stacked. He has potential bouts vs. Robinson (the defending champ), Spratley (a finalist last year), or Seymour (who beat Lilledahl at NCAAs last year). Bouzakis, Volk and ACC champ Eddie Ventresca of Virginia Tech are in the bracket's bottom half.

133 Pounds

Ohio State Buckeyes Ben Davino (left) wrestles Penn State Nittany Lions Marcus Blaze (right) in the 133-pound championship final of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Jax Forrest, Oklahoma State (13-0)
• Top contenders: Marcus Blaze, Penn State; Ben Davino, Ohio State; Aaron Seidel, Virginia Tech; Lucas Byrd, Illinois
• Wild card: Drake Ayala, Iowa
• Projected winner: Ben Davino

Probably the most entertaining weight class at nationals, where multiple freshmen will come roaring in and the defending champ lurks in quiet. Defending champ Lucas Byrd of Illinois and Ayala, a returning finalist, wrestled in the Big Ten consolations while Blaze and Davino locked defensive strategies for the title. Forrest launched his way into the top seed by rolling through the Big 12 since January, while Seidel won the ACC title as a freshman and tested Forrest in a 10-9 loss. The weight class has at least six strong contenders who could win on six different weekends. This one goes to Davino, however.

141 Pounds

Penn State’s Braeden Davis reacts after a win in the 141-pound weight class at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Jesse Mendez (22-0)
• Top contenders: Brock Hardy, Nebraska; Sergio Vega, Oklahoma State
• Wild card: Luke Stanich, Lehigh
• Projected winner: Jesse Mendez

Mendez is the defending champ and one of the two biggest favorites at NCAAs. The Big Ten wrestler of the year (over Penn State's Mitchell Mesenbrink) seeks to make his final case to win the Hodge Trophy. Stanich (13-0) might be Mendez's biggest threat in the top half of the bracket. Hardy and Vega will fight it out on the bracket's bottom half. Meanwhile, Penn State's Braeden Davis has to grind from the 14th seed to become a two-time All-American.

149 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Shayne Van Ness (left) grabs the arms of Ohio State Buckeyes Ethan Stiles in the 149-pound final of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Shayne Van Ness, Penn State (21-0)
• Top contenders: Jaxon Joy, Cornell; Collin Gaj, Virginia Tech
• Wild card: Lachlan McNeil, Michigan
• Projected winner: Shayne Van Ness

Van Ness enters NCAAs having tested himself with two harrowing wins at Big Tens, including one in which he scored five points without a takedown. Van Ness either is on the verge of a loss or hardened to the possibility. Gaj, the ACC champ, is among the wrestlers who could exploit a weakness. However, Van Ness has the callouses required to win a title.

157 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler PJ Duke lifts Nebraska Cornhuskers Antrell Taylor during the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: PJ Duke, Penn State (19-1)
• Top contenders: Antrell Taylor, Nebraska; Meyer Shapiro, Cornell; Kaleb Larkin, Arizona State
• Wild card: Brandon Cannon, Ohio State
• Projected winner: Antrell Taylor

What to make of Duke's 12-4 major decision of Taylor, the defending NCAA champ, at the Big Ten Tournament? Duke overwhelmed Taylor, scoring three takedowns and nearing a fourth before a stalling call. Taylor didn't look like himself but has had 10 days to reflect and recover. Meanwhile, Duke brings the BIg Ten Tournament's OW award to his first NCAAs, where he could get an early rematch with Cannon, who was injured much of the season. Ultimately, Taylor's experience wins the third matchup with Duke.

165 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Mitchell Mesenbrink (left) wrestles the Iowa Hawkeyes' Mikey Caliendo in the 165-pound championship final of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State (22-0)
• Top contenders: Joey Blaze, Purdue; Mikey Caliendo. Iowa
• Wild card: LaDarion Lockett, Oklahoma State
• Projected winner: Mitchell Mesenbrink

Can Mesenbrink repeat as NCAA champ while scoring bonus points in 100 percent of his bouts for an entire season? That's the primary question here, as Mesenbrink has been among the nation's three most dominant wrestlers. He has not lost since the 2024 NCAA final against Iowa State's David Carr. Blaze (brother of the Penn State freshman) has yet to wrestle Mesenbrink, which could make for an interesting final.

174 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lionswrestler Levi Haines gets his arm raised at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Levi Haines, Penn State (21-0)
• Top contenders: Simon Ruiz, Cornell; Christopher Minto, Nebraska; Carson Kharchla, Ohio State
• Wild card: Alex Facundo, Oklahoma State
• Projected winner: Levi Haines

Haines, the only senior on Penn State's roster, has wrestled a polished season. He has 10 technical falls in 21 victories and outdueled Kharchla and Minto in close bouts at Big Tens. He's wise, a 2024 NCAA champ who placed third last season after moving up two weight classes. Ruiz is undefeated, and Minto gave him two tough bouts this season, but Haines is poised to become a two-time champ.

184 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Rocco Welsh is introduced prior to his match in the final of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Rocco Welsh, Penn State (20-0)
• Top contenders: Max McEnelly, Minnesota; Aeoden Sinclair, Missouri
• Wild card: Brock Mantanona, Michigan
• Projected winner: Rocco Welsh

Welsh needed overtime in all three of his Big Ten Tournament bouts but still win his first title. That's a lot of dice rolls to win in succession. Plus, there are landmines in his half of the bracket, including Mantanona and Indiana's Sam Goin. However, Welsh is 13-0 against the NCAA field, 4-0 in overtime. If he gets McEnelly in the final, Welsh must get to his offense better than he did in their Big Ten final.

197 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Josh Barr (back) grabs the leg of Nebraska Cornhuskers Camden McDanel at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Josh Barr, Penn State (19-0)
• Top contenders: Rocky Elam, Iowa State; Stephen Little, Little Rock
• Wild card: Joey Novak, Wyoming
• Projected winner: Josh Barr

This weight class appears to be a march toward a Barr-Elam final in a dual of unbeatens. Even as an unbeaten top-ranked wrestler for the entire season, Barr seems undervalued. His closest bout is a 9-1 major decision over Little, and he has 10 technical falls on the season. Barr held a 45-1 takedown advantage over his dual-match opponents as well. But Elam (18-0) is a four-time All-American also trying to win his first NCAA title.

285 Pounds

Penn State Nittany Lions wrestler Cole Mirasola (left) takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes Ben Kueter at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

• No. 1 seed: Yonger Bastida, Iowa State (25-0)
• Top contenders: Isaac Trumble, NC State; Taye Ghadiali, Michigan
• Wild card: AJ Ferrari, Nebraska 
• Projected winner: Yonger Bastida

Bastida has been around for a long time and is the proper top seed, though Trumble and Ghadiali have the chops to challenge. Ferrari is always entertaining, though he's labored occasionally as a heavyweight this season. For Penn State, Cole Mirasola is seeded ninth and has to navigate the weight class as a light heavyweight (he usually weighs 226) to make the podium.

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