Why Purdue Will Finish Higher (or Lower) in the Big Ten Standings Than Its Preseason Projection

Purdue was projected to finish sixth in the Big Ten this season. Will the Boilers exceed those expectations, or will they dip below that preseason prediction?

Purdue Boilermakers guard Omer Mayer (17) yells after making a basket. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ROSEMONT, Ill. — The preseason predictions are out, and while Purdue is expected to finish in the top half of the Big Ten for the 2026-27 season, the Boilermakers are not projected to compete for a conference championship this season.

USA Today released its Big Ten preseason poll for the upcoming college basketball season. Purdue is projected to finish sixth in the conference, the same place it finished last year with a 13-7 league record.

Is a sixth-place finish a fair prediction for the Boilermakers? I have a few reasons as to why they could finish higher, or lower, than that spot. Before diving into that, let's first take a look at the complete Big Ten preseason poll.

Big Ten 2026-27 preseason poll

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter leads a team huddle. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

1. Michigan State Spartans
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. UCLA Bruins
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers
6. Purdue Boilermakers
7. USC Trojans
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
9. Indiana Hoosiers
10. Iowa Hawkeyes
11. Wisconsin Badgers
12. Maryland Terrapins
13. Minnesota Golden Gophers
14. Oregon Ducks
15. Washington Huskies
16. Northwestern Wildcats
17. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
18. Penn State Nittany Lions

Why Purdue will finish higher than sixth

Purdue Boilermakers center Daniel Jacobsen (12) walks off the court. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Improvement from Daniel Jacobsen

Purdue has been in this position before. The Boilermakers are losing four starters, which includes two-time All-American point guard Braden Smith. They have several questions to answer heading into the 2026-27 campaign. Plus. this is a team that, even with the talent from last season, finished sixth in league last year.

Purdue would need a sizable jump in production from 7-foot-4 center Daniel Jacobsen. He doesn't have to perform like Zach Edey, but considering he's the anchor at the five this season, the junior is going to see a lot more time on the floor.

If Jacobsen can be a consistent offensive weapon and give Purdue rim protection on the defensive end, it's going to be a major advantage for the Boilermakers.

Antione West Jr. is that guy

Everyone is expecting Antione West Jr. to have a breakout season in his first year on the court. What does that look like, though? Could the sophomore be the next Carsen Edwards, a high-volume scorer who carries the Purdue offense?

If West truly has that type of breakout performance, he'll be surrounded by quality pieces. Omer Mayer can get him the basketball and Gicarri Harris and C.J. Cox are excellent off-ball guards. His ability to score from all three levels would open things up for everyone on the floor.

West is also an aggressive and physical defender who can use his length to create problems for opposing guards. If he's as good as expected, he gives the Boilers a great shot to jump into the top four of the Big Ten standings.

Improvement on the glass

Rebounding is the biggest concern for Purdue heading into the 2026-27 season. Matt Painter talked about it after open practices and during the team's four-game trip to Canada. I don't expect the Boilermakers to transform into the nation's best rebounding team, but can they show enough improvement to win games?

The eligibility of Enzo Shahrvin certainly helps. His 6-foot-9 presence in the post will be an asset for Purdue in the frontcourt. He, along with Princeton transfer Caden Pierce, are probably the team's top two rebounders.

Purdue won't be dominant on the boards like it was when Edey was in town, but as long as it's not getting crushed on the glass, the Boilers will give themslves a chance for a higher finish.

Why Purdue will finish lower than sixth

Purdue Boilermakers guard C.J. Cox (0) smiles. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The rebounding doesn't improve

You had to know this one was coming, right? Some of Purdue's biggest issues in the past have been because of its inability to end possessions on the defensive end with a rebound. I've already explained why it's such a concern entering this season.

There have been times in practice or in Canada when Purdue's defense allowed multiple offensive rebounds before getting a defensive stop. You can't allow that to happen and expect to win games in the Big Ten.

If Purdue's rebounding remains a major concern throughout the season, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Boilers finish near the middle of the conference.

There is no go-to guy

Every team needs a go-to guy, especially in tight games. For the last two seasons, Purdue had a trio of options with Smith, Loyer and Kaufman-Renn. We expect West to fill that role this season, but what happens if he's not the guy?

There are other guys on Purdue's roster who could fill that role. Cox is the obvious option, the only two-year starter returning to West Lafayette. He's shown the ability to light teams up from behind the three-point line, but defenders may not cheat off of him if he's the biggest threat.

Purdue's scoring might be done by committee. There's potential that this year's squad doesn't have a primary option, which can still win games. But the Boilers probably need at least one guy to trust in clutch moments.

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