Best & Worst Case Scenarios for Stanford on Selection Sunday

It’s been a hectic last few days for the Stanford Cardinal, who went from a season high following their upset win over NC State to finish out the regular season, to what felt like a season low just a few days later when they lost to Pitt at the buzzer of the first round of the ACC tournament.

When Stanford took down the NC State Wolfpack in their final ACC game of the season, they were propelled to one final quad one win, which is also the defining piece of their resume for the NCAA tournament. In addition, practically every bubble team lost, providing Stanford a path to make their first dance in 13 years.

Then their hopes unraveled. The Cardinal were largely out-hustled in the opening round of the conference tourney against the Pitt Panthers, taking away almost all hope at an at-large bid. But once again, it wasn’t over just yet. Lots of bubble teams continued to go down, giving the Cardinal slight hope at making the dance. Only time will tell, and Selection Sunday is later today at 3:00 p.m. (PDT).

Best Case Scenario

Mar 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Stanford Cardinal guard Ebuka Okorie (1) reacts in the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The selection show begins, and the committee announces the first four, who will play in Dayton. They mention a few other bubble teams before finally reaching Stanford. This would be a dream come true for the Cardinal program and its fans. It would be their first March Madness since 2013-14, and they would then compete as early as Tuesday or Wednesday for a chance at the field of 64.

Stanford would love a chance to play the Miami OH Redhawks in this round. While a true dream would be to take on SMU, the committee would likely split ACC teams. If the Cardinal were to draw the Redhawks instead, it would be a great matchup that Stanford would have a great shot in. Stanford is ranked No. 61 in the NET rankings, while Miami (OH) is right behind them at No. 64.

At the six line, another dream scenario would see Stanford take on the UCLA Bruins. They likely wouldn’t be drawn with Louisville or North Carolina, who are also around the six seed line, but getting UCLA would be an awesome matchup for the Cardinal.

Two California teams, two rivals, and two former members of the Pac 12 would have an opportunity to reignite an old rivalry. It would be a great matchup in the first round to kick off March Madness.

While a true dream scenario would be to avoid Dayton as a whole, that’s too far out of the realm of possibility. There is a chance Stanford makes the dance, but almost no chance they avoid the first four.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case is pretty simple, and that’s that they miss the Madness as a whole. That’s the expected outcome, but in theory it could be worse. Stanford is projected as a one seed in the NIT bracket, but could potentially fall to a two seed as well. Either way, the season isn't over just yet.

If they end up at a two, they wouldn’t host the regional game, and would only get two games at home opposed to three, assuming they win all of the contests in front of them. That would put the Cardinal in a tough situation. However, there is one worse scenario that could happen.

After their early exit in the ACC tournament, the Virginia Tech Hokies announced that they would be declining an NIT invitation. While it felt program specific, the Cardinal could do the same, even though it would be unlike Stanford to do so. That would truly be the worst case scenario, having the promise of more Stanford hoops suddenly vanish.

The Cardinal will learn their fate on Sunday at 3:00 PM PT.

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