Stanford Bubble Watch: Did Upset Win Over NC State Put Them in the NCAA Tournament?

Nerd Ball may have saved Stanford's chances at making the NCAA tournament on Saturday. The Cardinal did all of the little things to get themselves ahead this afternoon, and ended up squeaking by NC State, 85-84 on the road to close out the regular season.

Stanford head coach Kyle Smith coined the term Nerd Ball for his style of play on the court, and it basically boils down to winning possessions and exuding effort throughout the game. Saturday's win showed exactly what it looks like, as Stanford hustled to every loose ball, snatched up 15 offensive rebounds, and came up clutch with huge shots time and again with the shot clock expiring.

It's those hustle plays that helped Stanford come out ahead despite losing the free throw battle 34-11. The line is where the Wolfpack scored 25 of their 84, while Stanford only racked up eight of their 85 from the stripe.

D-II transfer Jeremy Dent-Smith came into this season as someone with an interesting track record, but questions about whether he'd be able to make the adjustment to the next level. On Saturday he was responsible for Stanford's final four points of the game—all from the free throw line—to ice the win away.

Those intentional fouls also accounted for four of the Cardinal's free throw attempts.

Stanford's officially on the bubble—here's why they get in

Heading into the game, Stanford was listed in ESPN's Bracketology as a "next four out" team. The reason that the win on Saturday is so huge for the Cardinal's chances is that it ended up being another huge road win against a quality opponent, and a fifth Quad 1 victory for the program this season, which is significant. It also puts them at 5-6, nearly a .500 record.

The last four teams into the tournament by that same list are Santa Clara (1-5 in Quad 1), SMU (4-8), Indiana (2-10) and New Mexico (2-5). Outside of SMU, the Cardinal have as many Quad 1 wins as the other three teams combined, which speaks to how they've performed against tough opponents.

Stanford also walloped SMU in their final home game of the season, 95-75, which should be a huge point in their favor to put them into the tournament over their ACC rivals. Just the Quad 1 argument should put them firmly in the mix to be seriously considered for one of the final spots in the NCAA tournament.

Another impressive storyline is how they lost a key player in Chisom Okpara back in January and then immediately went 1-5 while they tried to figure out how the offense worked without him. After that rough stretch that put them out of tournament contention for a bit, they turned things around and are right back in the mix.

They finished with four straight wins, which should also count for something. That losing stretch of games accounted for nearly half of Stanford's losses this season.

ACC tournament projections

While Cal still has their regular season finale left to complete against Wake Forest, even a loss would leave them tied with Stanford at 9-9 in ACC play. Since Cal won the season series, they'd still get the No. 9 seed, which leaves Stanford at No. 10. That should land them with a matchup against Pitt in the first round in the No. 10 vs. 15 matchup. Tip-off would be on Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. (PT).

In their regular season meeting, Stanford beat Pitt 75-67 at home in what is the first win of their current four-game winning streak. If fate were to repeat itself next week, then that would leave Stanford facing off against NC State yet agains on Wednesday.

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