Does Stanford Still Have a Shot at March Madness, or Has That Ship Sailed?

Stanford basketball has suffered two tough losses in non-conference play that may have already tanked the season

Feb 12, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Stanford Cardinal head coach Kyle Smith on the sideline against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

On Sunday afternoon, Stanford took on UNLV in a west coast non-conference battle with the hopes of building on their three game win streak. However, the Cardinal were stunned at home, losing in heartbreaking fashion.

In what seemed like a 50/50 game throughout, neither team could pull away, and those odds fell in favor of the Rebels. UNLV got hot late, and Stanford couldn’t seem to get a stop without fouling, putting the Runnin’ Rebels in front. An Ebuka Okorie buzzer beater try fell short, and so did Stanford, as they lost 75-74 at home.

The loss was absolutely awful, but we need to take a step back and analyze the entire start to the 25-26 season thus far, because it’s not going well, and could potentially get worse when conference play begins.

Despite losing a few of their stars in the offseason, Stanford returned the most minutes in the entire conference. With solid transfers coming in, they looked like a team with tons of potential. With a solid level of depth options and tons of promising young stars, year two of the Kyle Smith era looked to be in a great spot.

The Cardinal even came into the season with March Madness hopes, a feat they hadn’t achieved in 12 years.

After a 4-0 start, they lost a home game against Seattle, one that left Stanford fans shocked. While many deemed the program's March Madness hopes over after that performance, there were still many more games to be played. A quad three loss, while a game changer, doesn’t always hold teams out of the tournament.

Stanford followed that up with back-to-back comeback victories in Palm Desert, and brought home a championship trophy that seemed to show that the one loss was an abberation. Then, they beat Portland to go on a three game win streak and appeared to be right back on track.

That’s until Stanford lost to UNLV, putting their home loss tally to two, already matching last years’ total.

Stanford has four more non-conference games on their schedule. They travel to San Jose State, host UT Arlington, play Colorado at a neutral site, and then host CSU Northridge. The Cardinal are heavy favorites in three of the four, and about at a 50/50 with the Buffaloes, per ESPN analytics. Stanford absolutely needs to win all four.

If the Cardinal can finish up their non-conference schedule by going 4-0, that would improve their cumulative record to 11-2. While it isn’t amazing considering their fairly lax schedule, hopes for the tournament definitely aren’t over. However, Stanford would need to evolve into a threat in the ACC to make it happen.

The Cardinal need to win at the very minimum 11 games in conference play to be considered for the tournament, but that’s going to take some tough wins both at home and on the road against a toughest caliber opponent.

It’s certainly not over for Stanford, but it’s going to take some quick momentum, a few tough victories, and a lot of heart to keep their tournament hopes afloat moving forward.

Stanford takes on San Jose State on Saturday, hoping to put their foot in the right direction into a comeback season.