Texas A&M Upset Chances: Path To Victory Over Houston

Get the tickets and popcorn ready.

Texas A&M basketball has proven it is in Oklahoma City with one mission: winning. So far, the first box has been checked, and they are looking to check this next and stamp its name on the Sweet Sixteen.

Does the Aggies’ offense come out of the tunnel with nothing to lose in the second round? After playing a full 40 minutes of basketball in which the defense helped the offense get open looks, it is going to need to bring its A game because the next opponent is one of the hardest teams it has seen all season.

Houston basketball comes into the contest with a one-sided win over Idaho, so rolling into the next game should have head coach Kelvin Sampson’s program feeling confident and prepared for what’s ahead. With that being said, Houston’s defense is going to be the key to A&M’s success, so can A&M execute in these two areas to pull off the upset it wasn’t able to win in 2024?

Perimeter Shooting

A&M’s head coach Bucky McMillan mentioned multiple times that this time of year sees the best teams playing their best basketball, with good guard play, so that’s the indicator that this roster has to get everyone to contribute, especially against a defense ranked No. 2 in the country.

Right now, the Aggies need to get transfer guards Rylan Griffen and Marcus Hill going because it wasn't their night against Saint Mary’s, and it has been obvious that when those two players can reach double-digit games, it is going to be a good day at the office, but without the contribution, the mountain gets steeper to climb.

Another star that has to show up is the Spanish Super, Ruben Dominguez, who stepped up tremendously in the 63-50 win over Saint Mary’s, where he buried three 3-pointers off seven attempts and has to keep momentum riding on their side because if the team falls behind, the size and lack of getting other teammates to step up has been a struggle. If the 6-foot-6 baller can get into double figures and give A&M a cushion, that would take the pressure off the forwards to get it done inside.

Defense Defense Defense

Texas A&M Aggies Ali Dibba. — Mar 19, 2026; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Saint Mary's (CA) Gaels forward Paulius Murauskas (23) and Texas A&M Aggies guard Ali Dibba (6) collide while fighting for the ball during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Do not let Houston get into transition and let the defense control the game, which is their strongest suit going into the night. That’s going to matter because the defense can cause frustration and havoc early on, forcing offenses to struggle and lose momentum and confidence.

The other evening against the Gaels, the Aggies forced 18 turnovers and held the No. 1 team in free-throw percentage, getting to the charity stripe. If that carries over into Saturday, it will take the pressure off the offense to convert on every possession.

Saint Mary’s was held to 38.3 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from three, but that isn't always going to cut it when one of the best NBA prospects is on the other side and is not playing like a freshman. There are also a few senior veterans who were in the national championship game against Florida and have experience in big moments, with revenge on their minds, so finding a way to apply the half-court and full-court pressure that ‘Bucky Ball’ is known for will factor into surviving and advancing.

Tipoff starts on Saturday, March 21, at 5:10 p.m. on TNT.

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