Texas A&M on Upset Alert vs. Mississippi State

The Texas A&M Aggies put their undefeated record on the line against an upstart SEC opponent.

Sep 27, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed (10) runs the ball during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

When the Texas A&M Aggies' 2025 schedule first came out, not many had Saturday's Week 6 matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs circled on their calendar, but things can change in a hurry.

Both teams have surpassed expectations so far this season, but in slightly different ways. The Aggies were expected to be pretty solid, but now look like true College Football Playoff contenders following their big road win over Notre Dame on Sept. 13. On the other hand, the Bulldogs had next to no expectations after a 2-10 finish in 2024, but are now 4-1 with a marquee win over Arizona State in non-conference play. Even though they lost their SEC opener to Tennessee in heartbreaking fashion last week, they still look far better than anyone expected.

While the Aggies are still favored heading into this game, it doesn't seem like it will be as easy as many thought before the season. In fact, some believe they might be on upset alert against the Bulldogs.

Josh Pate Likes Mississippi State's Odds vs. Texas A&M

Sep 27, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Fluff Bothwell (24) and offensive lineman Saquon Miles (71) celebrate after a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

When looking at potential upsets this weekend, Josh Pate said he liked the Bulldogs to cover the 14.5-point spread (per FanDuel SportsBook) and potentially win outright.

"State is an undervalued team still," Pate said on his self-titled podcast. "I think this number was put out by FanDuel, begging you to take Mississippi State. I took Mississippi State because I think I see the trap being set, but I think we set a counter-trap in that I think Mississippi State is still a little undervalued. And for our purposes, this week to bet State, it's probably a good thing that they lost that game against Tennessee. They tasted what could be, but then it got snatched from their fingertips.

"Now they go on the road, and now they've got to fight, and Jeff Lebby, they have to find a way to win one of these games. They've got to get that program-defining win. You've got the Arizona State game, that's not a conference game. I'm going to put a seven on this one. I think this is going to be a competitive game."

Pate noted that the Bulldogs' ability to throw the ball deep could pose a problem for the Aggies, who have shown some inconsistency on defense this season. However, they've also been very good at getting after the quarterback, while the Bulldogs haven't been the best at protecting Blake Shapen in the pocket.

It will undoubtedly be an intriguing game to watch, and the Aggies will have to be sharp if they want to keep their undefeated record intact.