Baseball: Breaking Down TCU's Path to Omaha
For the fourth consecutive season, the TCU Horned Frogs will get to play in the NCAA Tournament with Omaha on their mind. Fresh off of a Big 12 Tournament Championship, TCU is set to play in the Fayetteville Regional alongside Arkansas, Arizona, and Santa Clara.
The Horned Frogs' attendance in the NCAA Tournament has become expected, but they have struggled in recent years to make any real noise. In 2017, TCU won its Fort Worth Regional and swept Missouri State in the Super Regional to advance to the College World Series, but since then, the Frogs have never even made it out of the regional.
The road to a potential return to Omaha will be a long one and a tough one. Many have declared Fayetteville the most difficult Regional from which to escape. Arkansas finished as the No. 2 seed in the SEC with a 41-16 overall record and a 20-10 conference record. The Razorbacks were consistently great all season long, which is even more impressive considering the SEC's unbelievable level of competition. Ten of the conference's 14 teams were selected to compete in the NCAA Tournament, and eight of the top 16 national seeds belong to the Southeastern Conference.
Arizona was not a team that was ever super dominant during the regular season, but the Wildcats got hot at the right time, winning seven of their last nine games. They won three straight in the PAC-12 Tournament to advance to the championship before losing to Oregon in the finale.
Santa Clara finished 35-18 in the regular season and won the WCC Tournament Championship. The Broncos have won eight in a row and have only lost three games since April 23. Santa Clara is making its first tournament since 1997.
Let's break down what a run to Omaha could look like for TCU.
Note: For the sake of the article, TCU will win the Regional. Sorry to Arizona, Arkansas, and Santa Clara fans.
TCU Baseball's Path to Omaha
Fayetteville Regional Predictions
Game 1- #1 Arkansas vs. #4 Santa Clara
The Broncos have been beating up on everybody they have played as of late, but Arkansas is a different story. The best team Santa Clara played in its recent eight-game win streak was Portland, ranked 105th in RPI, while the Razorbacks are ranked 3rd. Arkansas should be fired up to play a Regional at home, and I expect them to win comfortably here.
The pick: Arkansas
Game 2- #2 TCU vs. #3 Arizona
Arizona has been playing good baseball over the past few weeks, but so has TCU, and TCU is the better team. The Wildcats took down two top-10 teams in the PAC-12 Tournament in Stanford (3) and Oregon State (10). Arizona is a feisty team, but the Horned Frogs only lost two games in May by a combined margin of two runs.
The pick: TCU
Game 3- #3 Arizona vs. #4 Santa Clara
With the season on the line for both teams, a competitive game is to be expected. Despite the early loss to Arkansas, the Broncos are still entering this game, having won eight of nine games. I like Santa Clara to send the Wildcats home early.
The pick: Santa Clara
Game 4: #1 Arkansas vs. #2 TCU
The Frogs beat Arkansas 18-6 in the lone meeting between the two teams this season, but both teams have changed since that game. I think TCU comes from behind and surprised the Razorback faithful, giving Arkansas its first blemish.
The pick: TCU
Game 5: #1 Arkansas vs. #4 Santa Clara
Santa Clara's dreams of a Cinderella run are squashed in this game. Arkansas wins this one and gets another crack at the Horned Frogs.
The pick: Arkansas
Game 6: #1 Arkansas vs. #2 TCU
Coming off a blowout victory over the Broncos, the Razorbacks stay hot here and beat the Frogs handily, forcing a do-or-die, win-or-go-home game seven of the regional.
The pick: Arkansas
Game 7: #1 Arkansas vs. #2 TCU
I would expect Fayetteville to be absolutely rocking if it all came down to this game. Arkansas is the favorite to win and advance to the Super Regionals. Still, similarly to the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma State, TCU starts fast and buries the Razorbacks, stifling all comeback attempts. For the first time since 2017, the Frogs are moving on.
The pick: TCU
Super Regionals Predictions
The winner of the Fayetteville Regional will play the winner of the Terre Haute Regional. In this case, TCU comes out of the Fayetteville Regional and will play Indiana State, Iowa, North Carolina, or Wright State. Indiana State is just the third MVC team to host a regional since 2000, and while the Sycamores have been one of the best baseball teams all year, it will be Iowa that emerges from the group.
Iowa finished third in the regular season conference title race and second in the tournament. The Hawkeyes are second in the country, only behind Wake Forest, in hits allowed per game with 6.68 and are fifth in strikeouts per nine innings with 11. The offensive numbers don't leap off the screen at you, but Iowa can beat anyone defensively. This is another regional that goes seven games, but the Hawkeyes will best Indiana State in the end.
In this scenario, it will be TCU versus Iowa in the Super Regional; both two seeds. The Super Regional is a best-of-three series between two teams, and the winner of the series advances to the College World Series.
Game 1: TCU vs. Iowa
The Horned Frogs experience some hangover here, and Iowa jumps out to a 1-0 series lead. The Hawkeyes' defense shut down a scorching hot TCU offense, winning comfortably and surprising the sleepy Frogs.
The pick: Iowa
Game 2: TCU vs. Iowa (1-0)
With their season on the line, the Horned Frogs come out of the gates fast and recapture their previous momentum. TCU rolls Iowa and forces a decisive game three.
The pick: TCU
Game 3: TCU (1-1) vs. Iowa
It all comes down to who's playing the better baseball (obviously). TCU's late-season momentum extends into the postseason and helps the Horned Frogs earn a spot in the College World Series.
The pick: TCU over Iowa to advance to the CWS
Just like that, the Horned Frogs are back where they belong. It won't be easy getting out of a regional hosted by one of the best teams in the country, but if Kirk Saarloos' squad can find a way to move on there, I see them taking care of business in the Supers, thus advancing to the CWS.
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