NCAA Baseball Tournament: Latest Projections Have TCU Playing No. 1 Wake Forest

The regular season of college baseball is behind us. This week, all conference tournaments take place, giving some teams one more chance to jockey for their best postseason positioning. Next Monday, May 29, the NCAA will announce the field of 64 for the tournament, including Regional hosts and prospective Super Regionals hosts.

D1Baseball.com, one of the leading sources of college baseball information, scores, and more, has updated its projections for the postseason tournament. D1Baseball has seven of the nine teams in the Big 12 making the postseason.

Earlier this month, even after winning the Cal State Fullerton series, D1Baseball did not project TCU making it to the postseason. Now, after the Frogs have won ten of their last 12 games and won three straight weekend series, the Frogs are now projected to be the No. 3 seed in the Winston-Salem Regional.

The good news is that the Frogs are projected to be in the tournament. The bad news is if that projection holds true, TCU will have to defeat the current No. 1 team in the nation – Wake Forest – to advance to a Super Regional. Before you panic upon hearing that, remember that last year, Oklahoma was the No. 3 seed in their Regional and made it all the way to the national championship series.

The other two teams projected to play in the Winston-Salem Regional are No. 2 seed Northeastern and No. 4 seed Saint Joseph’s.

Interestingly, in these same projections, Texas is projected as the national No. 16 seed. If they were to win their Regional, they would play the winner of the Winston Salem Regional. If TCU wins the Regional, that means an intra-conference Super Regional 200 miles south on I-35 in three weeks.

Two Big 12 schools, Texas and Oklahoma State, are projected to host Regionals. Two other teams TCU played this year, and beat both, are projected to host Regionals and Super Regionals – Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

Two other teams TCU faced this year, Dallas Baptist and UNC-Wilmington, are also projected to make the tournament. Three of the first four out, meaning the last four not to make the final cut, are teams TCU played this season – Texas State, UTSA, and Cal State Fullerton.

Here are some of the projections from D1Baseball.com as of May 22:

Big 12 Schools Projected in NCAA Baseball Tournament

Kansas State – Projected No. 3 seed in the Gainesville Regional.
Oklahoma – Projected No. 3 seed in the Fayetteville Regional.
Oklahoma State– Projected No. 13 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Stillwater. Their potential Super Regional would be in Baton Rouge against No. 4 LSU.
TCU– Projected No. 3 seed in the Winston-Salem Regional.
Texas – Projected No. 16 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Austin. Their potential Super Regional would be in Winston-Salem against No. 1 Wake Forest.
Texas Tech – Projected No. 3 seed in the Baton Rouge Regional. Another potential intra-conference Super Regional would be on tap if Tech and Oklahoma State won their respective Regionals.
West Virginia – Projected No. 2 seed in the Charlottesville Regional.

TCU Non-Conference Opponents

TCU Non-Conference Opponents In NCAA Baseball Tournament

Arkansas – Projected No. 3 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Fayetteville and potentially a Super Regional versus the winner of the Tuscaloosa Regional.
Dallas Baptist – Projected No. 2 seed in the Austin Regional.
UNC-Wilmington – Projected No. 4 seed in the Nashville Regional.
Vanderbilt – Projected No. 7 national seed and host of the Nashville Regional and potentially a Super Regional versus the winner of the Conway Regional.

Regional Tournament Hosts: The Top 16

Winston-Salem Regional (Wake Forest)
Gainesville Regional (Florida)
Fayetteville Regional (Arkansas)
Baton Rouge Regional (LSU)
Stanford Regional (Stanford)
Clemson Regional (Clemson)
Nashville Regional (Vanderbilt)
Charlottesville Regional (Virginia)
Lexington Regional (Kentucky)
Conway Regional (Coastal Carolina)
Coral Gables Regional (Miami)
Auburn Regional (Auburn)
Stillwater Regional (Oklahoma State)
Tuscaloosa Regional (Alabama)
Brighton Regional (Boston College)
Austin Regional (Texas)

Numbers represent projected national seed

Projected College World Series Brackets

Assuming every host team wins their Regional (they won’t) and the bottom eight regional hosts all go on the road to play the Super Regional at the top eight teams, and assuming the top eight national seeds all win the Supers (they won’t), here’s how the brackets would be in Omaha:

Bracket One

(1) Wake Forest
(4) LSU
(5) Stanford
(8) Virginia

Bracket Two

(2) Florida
(3) Arkansas
(6) Clemson
(7) Vanderbilt

Look for some storylines from the conference tournaments that could change these projections. We will know in seven days what the NCAA postseason will look like.

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