Predicting TCU Baseball's 2025 Season: A Return To Form?

As the final teams were revealed for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Kirk Saarloos and a few dozen TCU Horned Frog baseball players slowly realized their season would come to an end at the G. Malcolm Louden Player Development Center, rather than in Omaha. A 14-16 conference record and four-game exit in the Big 12 Tournament wasn't enough to sway committee members – TCU was simply not qualified for the postseason. For one-and-doners like Payton Tolle and Peyton Chatagnier, that Memorial Day weekend would leave a sting.

But that season is in the books. Come Feb. 14, the 2025 Horned Frogs look to return to form and make another NCAA Tournament run that, ideally, ends in the College World Series.

With a massive injection of talent (freshmen and transfers alike) and a few key pieces returning from injury, the Frogs' roster appears ready to make that run. But a daunting schedule won't make that route easy. As the sun rises on a new college baseball season, it's prediction season.

Last year, TCU's season fell seven wins short of our projection and the Frogs fell short of the postseason. Injuries and surprising underperformers led to an overall disappointing season.

Grounded Expectations

TCU baseball preview — TCU bids farewell to its 2024 season. | TCU Baseball on X @TCU_Baseball

Last season, the Frogs crumbled under massive expectation, being ranked inside the top five nationally. This year, voters do realize the potential of this team, but those same expectations are severely mitigated.

There's no top-five projections for the Frogs this time. Here's where they lie in respected preseason polls:

Perfect Game: 18th
D1 Baseball: 23rd
USA Today Coaches Poll: 23rd
NCBWA: 23rd
New York Times/The Athletic: 24th
Baseball America: N/R

Whether TCU exceeds or falls shy of these expectations doesn't lie on the newcomers – it falls on the shoulders of key pieces who regressed last season. Anthony Silva is an all-conference talent whose batting average fell from .330 in 2023 to .268. Freshman ace Kole Klecker lost his weekend starting spot, falling from 10-4 to 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA. While Louis Rodriguez maintained a reasonable level of quality on the mound, he didn't improve and his offense failed him, forcing a 4-3 record despite a 4.13 ERA.

Taking a different approach

Perhaps Saarloos' biggest improvement didn't come to the roster, rather the coaching staff. An crippling and confounding issue for the Frogs last season was too much patience at the plate. Almost every first pitch was taken and, once opposing teams realized the trend, batters fell behind in counts almost automatically. As a result, extra base hits became a scarcity team-wide.

Enter: Bill Mosiello.

𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 (𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤) 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐌𝐨!#FrogballUSA | #GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/Bfcpj3O1Py
— TCU Baseball (@TCU_Baseball) June 17, 2024

A longtime associate of Saarloos, Mosiello led Ohio State the last two seasons and spent nine seasons in Fort Worth from 2014-22. Those Mosiello-led teams made plenty of tournament runs and hit the ball exceptionally well (see: 2017 College World Series runners up).

Last year's hitting woes were hardly a result of incapability. In addition to Silva, Karson Bowen dropped his average from .350 to .235. Chatagnier began the season as a sure-fire base-hit, but finished the season with a paltry .236 average. The issue was coaching and approach at the plate.

New & Returning Impact Players

Let's set aside Silva, Bowen, and the other returning Frogs for a minute. Instead, let's focus on those players returning from injury. Specifically on the mound.

One of the Frogs' best relief pitchers from 2023 missed the entire 2024 season to injury: Cohen Feser. The redshirt junior should play a massive role in the bullpen. As a sophomore, Feser held 15-of-20 opponents scoreless en route to a 2-0 record and 2.56 ERA in 31.2 innings pitched.

Sophomore Mason Bixby provided serious heat out of the pen as a freshman–routinely hitting the upper-90s with solid control and consistency–but his 2024 campaign was cut short to injury. Jax Traeger also missed time with an injury after a strong 2023 season (2-0, 4.63 ERA).

Freshmen like Trever Baumler (Urbandale, Iowa), Mason Brassfield (Bakersfield, Calif.), and Noah Franco (Downey, Calif.) bolster the rotation with serious potential. Transfers in Tommy LaPour (Wichita State), Gianluca Shinn (Washington), and Trey Newmann (Cal) add valuable experience and fill niche roles sorely missed last season.

In short, the pitching staff should be the most improved unit on the team, perhaps in the conference. Its high-end potential could match any team in the country (and, no, I don't type those words lightly).

A boost at the plate

Though last year's hitting woes were largely due to a poor approach and lack of coaching adjustment, it can't hurt to have a couple extra bats in the lineup. Specifically, the Frogs lacked power. Last year's team finished with the second-fewest home runs in the Big 12 (46) just a year after finishing fourth. Only Baylor finished with fewer total bases.

Baumler, Franco, and transfer Preston Gamster (Paris JUCO) immediately inject a home-run threat to three spots in the lineup. Gamster tallied nine homers last season and earned second-team all-conference honors. Franco won the Fall World Series MVP for his versatility on the mound and with his bat; Baumler presents a similar dual threat, hitting 22 home runs his senior year of high school.

Transfers Isaac Cadena (Ohio State) and Colton Griffin (S. F. Austin) should bring that total base number up immediately thanks to serious athleticism running the bases. Last year, the two totaled 80 hits – 38 of which went for extra bases.

A more aggressive approach early in the at-bat combined with a serious injection of hitting talent should return this offense to one of the more dangerous in the conference.

TCU Baseball Positional Previews

Check out in-depth looks at all three position units here:

TCU Baseball Schedule: Hard Is Just The Expectation

Though Texas and Oklahoma leave the league this year, the Big 12 features some serious power. Newcomer Arizona debuted inside the top 15 at multiple polls and 20 in nearly all of them. Oklahoma State is a mainstay in top 25 polls and debuts around 17th in most polls. West Virginia and Texas Tech always contend for the league title while Kansas and Cincinnati make for interesting teams to monitor in the middle group.

Cincinnati in particular should draw the attention of TCU. Last season, the Bearcats swept the Frogs in the Queen City – a turning point for the team, almost kicking off their downward spiral and setting a tone for the rest of the year.

Fortunately, TCU misses preseason favorite Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and a full series with Kansas State. Road series at Texas Tech and Arizona present the toughest conference challenge, though don't overlook the Big 12 debut series at home against Arizona State.

The non-conference slate is what turns this schedule from just difficult to plain hard. Following a four-game Opening Weekend series at San Diego, TCU faces Michigan, Arkansas, and Kansas State in the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series at Globe Life Field. The Frogs' home opener comes against Southern Miss – a team with a storied and recent pedigree of hosting regionals and winning postseason games. TCU closes its non-conference weekend slate with Fresno State, a team picked second in the preseason Mountain West poll.

Weeknight games always present a challenge as TCU continues rivalries with quality programs like Texas State and UTSA as well as the big-ticket one with Dallas Baptist. DBU ranks tops among mid-major programs in preseason polls (20th and 21st overall).

Where Might TCU Falter?

So far, I've written the word "potential" three times and "should" five times. The ceiling is there. But this TCU roster lacks proven commodities.

That's not to say there aren't any. Ben Abeldt was named the preseason Big 12 Pitcher of the Year and Sam Myers earned All-Big 12 honorable mention honors last year. Abeldt and Caedmon Parker both fall into new pitching roles this season.

Klecker turned in a stellar 2023. But the last time we saw him pitch, he struggled. Ditto with Silva (at least at the plate). Freshmen like Baumler, Brassfield, Franco, and Sawyer Strosnider are always wild cards – no matter their production during the fall, it's always unknown whether those players translate to the college level.

LaPour and Griffin dominated at their last stops, both mid-major.

The floor falls out if many or all of these newcomers fail to meet their projected potential. While the ceiling for this roster is extremely high, the floor is very low, at least by TCU standards. There's a very real possibility that this team could sit at home during the postseason again. There's an equal possibility it makes Omaha.

TCU Baseball Season Prediction

Conference play, especially early on, is the key this season. Last year, TCU set a program record when it began 13-0. None of that mattered with a sub-.500 record in the Big 12. It was immediately evident when the Frogs started out of the gate 2-7 against league foes Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. With Arizona State and Texas Tech the first two league opponents on the schedule, we'll have a good idea of whether TCU can compete nationally or not by April.

Series at UCF and against Cincinnati are must-wins. A record worse than 4-2 through those stints would be an abject failure.

Fortunately, the Frogs finish the season at Utah – a location at altitude and a team picked to finish 12th in the conference (of course, not always reflective of outcome).

Last year, the Frogs went 33-21 in the regular season (we projected 40-20), but went 14-16 in Big 12 play, leading to an omission from the postseason. Given the historical success, preseason expectation, and roster talent, regression is almost not an option here. TCU should improve by a notable margin, but inexperience could cause for stumbles, especially out of the gate.

Come May, I believe this team will be playing some of the best baseball in the country, barring injuries. Given the range of potential outcomes, I forecast a moderate improvement over a major one.

Season Prediction: 38-22, Super Regionals

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