Big 12 Game of the Week - UTSA At Houston
When Houston beat UTSA by two points in triple overtime last season, it was a Conference USA versus AAC matchup. This year, it will be an AAC versus Big 12 matchup. The Houston Cougars joined the Big 12 this summer, and the Roadrunners slid into the AAC, filling the vacancy. When these two teams play on Saturday, they will kick off a new season and a new era for both sides.
Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith will start under center for the Cougars. He appeared in 23 games with the Red Raiders, throwing for 2,687 yards and 19 touchdowns. Smith beat out Lucas Coley in fall camp and will have the tall task of replacing Clayton Tune, who threw for more yards in 2022 (4074) than Smith has in his entire career. Tune also added 40 touchdowns through the air last season, just over double what Smith accomplished in two years at Texas Tech. Smith's stats don't stack up well compared to Tune's (to be fair, almost nobody's did), but he brings experience to a league he has played in before.
The Cougars also must replace prolific receiver Tank Dell, who was drafted in the third round of this year's draft by the hometown Houston Texans. Dell was Tune's favorite target last season, racking up 1398 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Sophomore receiver Matthew Golden (this name may be familiar to some of the folks reading this as he was once committed to TCU) is Houston's leading returning pass-catcher. He caught for over 500 yards last season, including a 127-yard and two-touchdown performance against East Carolina late last season.
In addition, Houston is fielding an experienced offensive line and a strong cast of skill position players. But it is not the offense that Cougar fans should worry about; it is the defense.
Over 13 games, the Houston defense gave up a total of 418 points; that is an average of just over 32 points allowed per matchup. Not great. Unfortunately for them, the defense gets to see a really good UTSA offense right off the bat.
Led by seventh-year QB Frank Harris, the Roadrunner offense is looking to build on an incredible 2022 season in which they scored under 30 just twice. Harris threw for 4063 yards and ran for 602 yards last season, and Joshua Cephus and De'Corian Clark, his two leading receivers from last season, are coming back. Clark is still recovering from an ACL injury, but Cephus, who caught for 985 yards last year, will enter the season fully healthy.
UTSA lost some defensive production in names like Trevor Harmanson and Corey Mayfield Jr., but leading tackler Jamal Ligon and leading sack man Trey Moore will both be back. Safety Rashad Wisdom is also back for the Roadrunners after suffering a season-ending injury last fall. In his last full season, 2021, Wisdom tallied 87 tackles and six passes defended. The defense is not the best in the country, but it doesn't have to be with the offense it has helping them out. If it is solid like last season, UTSA can be successful.
To me, this game will come down to which defense is better. We know both offenses will move the ball and score points, so the determining factor will be whether or not either defense can step up. The defense that comes to play will win this game.
Prediction
Houston's crowd will undoubtedly be rowdy for its first home game in the Big 12, but UTSA will be looking for revenge. The Roadrunners have one of the best players in football, leading the way along with a great group of skill position players. Vegas has UTSA winning by two and I tend to agree. I predict a UTSA win in Houston to start the season behind a big day from Harris and a strong showing from the Roadrunner defense.
Pick: UTSA
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