From the Fort Can TCU Football Turn Over a New Leaf Against West Virginia?

TCU’s win over Baylor offered relief after a frustrating start. West Virginia will test whether the Horned Frogs are beginning to grow or simply enjoying a brief change in the weather.

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Jaden Craig (1) throws a pass against the Baylor Bears during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The fall colors, which don’t usually appear in North Texas until winter has practically arrived, signify a change in the natural order. As the leaves wither and fall from the treetops, the rest of the world begins to emerge from the gloomy depths of summer into the cheery mood of autumn. It’s a strange dichotomy, one that parallels the TCU football experience at the moment, though not in the way many might think.

The Horned Frogs are fresh off a cathartic 17-6 victory over the hated Baylor Bears. Beating Baylor is obviously one of the primary goals of any TCU football campaign. In many ways, it’s the litmus test for whether the Frogs had a successful season.

That might not be the case this year. TCU has struggled to maintain any consistency, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, which has hampered its ability to produce results. Still, it was nice to pick up the win over the university’s chief rival.

Can TCU’s Slow Start Become the Beginning of Something Better?

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes during a timeout against the Baylor Bears during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There is a possibility that TCU’s miserable opening stretch was exactly what the program needed to experience before it could begin moving in a more encouraging direction. It’s certainly an uncomfortable proposition, particularly for a team that entered the season with considerably greater ambitions than simply surviving the first half of its schedule.

The Horned Frogs entered their bye week with a 2-3 record, having scored just 23 combined points in consecutive defeats to UCF and BYU. The defense had repeatedly demonstrated its ability to compete against quality opposition, but the offense seemed almost entirely incapable of rewarding those efforts. Even when opportunities presented themselves, TCU struggled to capitalize, leaving Sonny Dykes with a collection of problems that couldn’t be explained away by a particularly difficult schedule.

Perhaps reaching that point was necessary.

As autumn leaves begin falling from the trees, their disappearance isn’t an indication that the trees themselves are dying. The process allows trees to conserve resources during the winter, while the fallen leaves eventually decompose and return nutrients to the surrounding soil. What initially appears to be deterioration is actually an important component of preparing for something new.

TCU’s situation isn’t entirely dissimilar. The frustrations of the opening weeks exposed weaknesses that might otherwise have been overlooked had the Horned Frogs managed to escape with a few additional victories. The offensive inefficiency, questionable execution and inability to complement an otherwise impressive defense were impossible to ignore.

Saturday’s victory over Baylor offered the first indication that those difficulties might finally be producing something worthwhile. Our TCU-Baylor report card examines what improved and what still needs work.

West Virginia Will Test Whether TCU’s Transformation Is Real

Of course, defeating Baylor doesn’t automatically mean TCU has undergone some extraordinary transformation. The Horned Frogs are still 3-3, and several of the problems responsible for their disappointing start remain unresolved. One satisfying victory against a bitter rival can certainly improve the mood around a program, but sustaining that improvement requires something more substantial.

Saturday’s matchup against West Virginia provides an opportunity to demonstrate exactly that.

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (3) warms up prior to their game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Mountaineers arrive in Fort Worth following a remarkable 45-42 victory over Cincinnati, a contest in which quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. accounted for more than 500 yards of offense. West Virginia also surrendered 622 yards to the Bearcats, presenting TCU with an opportunity to build on its encouraging offensive developments against a defense that has experienced difficulties of its own.

If scoring 17 points against Baylor can be considered “encouraging.”

Our West Virginia scouting report takes a closer look at the Mountaineers’ explosive backfield and struggling defense.

For Dykes and his staff, the challenge is ensuring the Baylor victory represents the beginning of a larger improvement rather than an isolated moment of satisfaction. Another strong defensive performance would hardly be surprising, but the offense needs to demonstrate that it can contribute consistently enough to make those efforts meaningful.

There is still plenty of football remaining, and TCU’s schedule offers opportunities to turn an otherwise disappointing campaign into something considerably more respectable. The Horned Frogs aren’t suddenly legitimate Big 12 championship contenders, but the possibility of finishing the season with genuine momentum is considerably more appealing than the alternative.

The latest Big 12 power rankings offer a look at where TCU stands as it tries to build on its first conference victory.

Naturally, West Virginia could arrive Saturday and send this entire autumnal analogy spiraling into the volcanic depths of Mount Vesuvius. A loss would immediately revive many of the uncomfortable questions that surrounded TCU before its victory in Waco, perhaps suggesting that the Horned Frogs haven’t changed much at all.

But there’s an equally compelling possibility that the struggles of September and early October were necessary for the program to recognize what needed to improve.

Autumn doesn’t immediately produce new leaves. Instead, it creates the conditions that allow trees to survive the winter before eventually emerging with new growth in the spring.

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