KillerFrogs Big 12 Predictions Revisited and the One Pick We Missed

The Horned Frogs’ bye week gave fans a chance to sit back and watch some big games across college football. While TCU took the weekend off, five Big 12 conference matchups and Arizona State’s nonconference game against Hawaii delivered plenty to discuss.

As a staff, we typically make score predictions for TCU’s games. With the Frogs on a bye, we decided to spice things up and pick winners across the Big 12 schedule.

Our consensus picks were BYU, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Kansas State, Arizona State and Utah. Five delivered. Kansas State did not.

Beyond the Big 12, the weekend brought plenty of headlines. Kentucky upset LSU, Georgia defeated Alabama, Oklahoma beat Texas, and former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover helped Indiana rally past Nebraska.

We did not make predictions for those games, but they added to an eventful weekend.

Now that the games are in the books, it is time to revisit our picks. Which teams delivered, which ones surprised us, and which prediction would we like to have back? And what did we learn about the teams TCU still has to face?

BYU Makes My Iowa State Pick Look Bad

Final score: BYU 24, Iowa State 10

Well, this is awkward.

I was the only member of the staff to select Iowa State, and boy, was I wrong. The Cougars took care of business at home and improved to 5-0.

I thought this game could have been closer after TCU took BYU to the wire a week earlier. Instead, the Cougars showed again why they belong among the Big 12’s top teams. Good teams find ways to win, and BYU did just that.

TCU has already played BYU and will not face Iowa State this season, so this result does not directly change what is ahead for the Frogs. Still, TCU’s defensive performance against the Cougars offers some encouragement.

The defense has kept the Frogs in games. If the offense can find a rhythm, TCU could still give some good teams trouble.

Oklahoma State Rewards Our Unanimous Pick Against UCF

Final score: Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28

Everyone on our staff got this one right. We unanimously selected Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys delivered.

UCF stayed within reach into the fourth quarter, but Oklahoma State pulled away as Drew Mestemaker continued to shine.

The Frogs will not play Oklahoma State this season and have already lost to UCF. Even so, the Cowboys’ performance against a shared opponent deserves attention.

Oklahoma State found ways to turn a competitive game into a two-touchdown win. TCU has been searching for that ability to finish. Jason Phillips examined what the Frogs can learn from this result, including how the Cowboys turned opportunities into points.

Oklahoma State is becoming a team worth watching in the Big 12 race.

Arizona Wins a Close Staff Vote and a High-Scoring Game

Final score: Arizona 52, West Virginia 31

Oct 10, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Arizona Wildcats safety Gavin Hunter (23) tackles West Virginia Mountaineers running back Amari Latimer (1) during the fourth quarter at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This was the game I was most excited to watch, and it delivered plenty of scoring.

Arizona won our staff vote by just one pick. The Wildcats rewarded those who selected them with a three-touchdown victory, improving to 5-1.

West Virginia finished with more total yards, but the Mountaineers struggled to turn enough of that production into points. Arizona made its opportunities count.

The Horned Frogs still have to face both teams, and neither should be taken lightly. TCU’s defense will have different challenges against each offense, something Phillips broke down in his Arizona-West Virginia follow-up.

If the Frogs want to win those games, they will need to limit explosive plays, capitalize on defensive opportunities and find more consistency offensively.

Houston Hands Us Our Only Consensus Miss

Final score: Houston 35, Kansas State 16

If there is one result that stands out from this weekend, it is Houston’s victory over Kansas State.

The surprise was not necessarily that the ranked Cougars won. It was how comfortably they did it.

I thought the Wildcats would put up a bigger fight, and most of our staff agreed, selecting Kansas State to win at home. Instead, Houston took control early and never gave the Wildcats much room to recover.

Like TCU, Kansas State is now 0-2 in Big 12 play and has questions to answer.

The Frogs will not face Houston this season, but they will host Kansas State. That looks like an important opportunity for TCU, although a difficult start does not make the Wildcats an easy opponent.

Both teams still have time to improve before they meet.

Arizona State Takes Care of Hawaii Before TCU Turns to Baylor

Final score: Arizona State 30, Hawaii 12

There was no disagreement among our group on this pick. Every staff member selected Arizona State, and the Sun Devils handled business at home.

Hawaii kept the game within reach into the fourth quarter, but Arizona State finished the job and gave us another correct unanimous pick.

The Frogs will not play Arizona State this season. The connection worth remembering is Baylor, which beat the Sun Devils 55-19 the previous weekend.

Arizona State’s response against Hawaii does not tell us exactly what will happen in Waco. It does reinforce that Baylor’s last performance deserves TCU’s attention.

Our Baylor film review looks at what the Bears showed against Arizona State and what the Frogs need to prepare for.

TCU cannot afford to arrive in Waco still searching for the same answers it needed before the bye.

Utah Finishes Strong Against Kansas

Final score: Utah 41, Kansas 24

Oct 10, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Kansas Jayhawks defensive end Leroy Harris III (33) dives after Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I almost picked the Jayhawks to pull off an upset, but changed my mind at the last moment.

That turned out to be a good decision. Our staff unanimously chose Utah, and the Utes delivered.

Kansas made the game interesting, trailing just 27-24 entering the fourth quarter. Utah then took control and finished with a 17-point victory.

The Utes’ ability to close out the game was my biggest takeaway. They improved to 5-0 and remain a team to watch in the Big 12 race.

TCU will host both Kansas and Utah this season. Neither should be taken lightly.

Kansas showed enough fight to challenge an unbeaten opponent, while Utah showed it could respond when a game was still up for grabs. Those could be valuable wins for the Frogs if they can get their offense going. Without that improvement, both could become difficult afternoons.

What Our Big 12 Predictions Tell Us Before TCU Faces Baylor

A 5-1 finish is a pretty good weekend for our consensus picks. I would still like my Iowa State selection back, and most of us probably feel the same way about Kansas State.

BYU remained undefeated. Oklahoma State continued its strong conference start. Arizona put up 52 points on the road, and Houston made a statement in Manhattan.

For TCU, the results were another reminder that the conference race kept moving during the bye.

The opportunity to turn the season around is still there, but the Frogs have to take advantage of it. The defense has shown it can keep TCU competitive. Now the offense needs to make those performances count.

The work TCU needed to do during the bye week becomes much more meaningful if it shows up against Baylor.

The bye is over. The next test is in Waco.

Which Big 12 result surprised you most, Frog fans? And what improvement do you most need to see from TCU against Baylor? Join the conversation in the KillerFrogs Fan Forum.

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