Predicting Every 2023 College Football Conference Winner

Spring football wrapped up for every team in the country. The 2023 college football season brings along plenty of intrigue, highlighted by the nation's bluebloods turning over rosters. With turnover comes opportunity for other programs.

It's May and the college football cycle is at its slowest. So, let's take the opportunity to project the most likely conference winners for all 10 conferences.

ACC: Florida State Seminoles

In 2023, the ACC is doing away with divisions, meaning Florida State no longer has to go through Clemson to get to the conference championship game. No team in the country brings back more production than the 'Noles do, repeating last year's top-five returning production mark. Florida State is one of the most experienced teams nationally and adds a top-six transfer class, per 247Sports.

Overall, FSU has a more favorable schedule than Clemson or North Carolina. They avoid both teams in league play, meaning only one win over Clemson or UNC in the conference title game would do the trick.

This might be a last hurrah for this iteration of Florida State and they haven't been this primed to win the ACC since the Jimbo Fisher era.

Projected wins: 9.0

American: Tulane Green Wave

It's tough to replace a playmaker like Tyjae Spears and two defensive captains. However, QB Michael Pratt returns and so does head coach Willie Fritz, who turned down rumors of taking a bigger job like Georgia Tech. 73% of the team's offensive production returns and the Green Wave added some nice pieces in the portal defensively.

The biggest advantage Tulane has this season is the departure of three AAC giants: Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – winners of five of the last eight AAC championships. Newcomer UTSA can make a run of the conference, and SMU and Memphis are likely to reload, but Tulane is the best-positioned after a historic 12-win season.

Expecting this team to repeat inside the top 10 is unreasonable, but they're the most likely team to take home their second straight conference championship.

Projected wins: 9.4

Big 12: Texas Longhorns

*Ducks for cover*

I'm well aware Texas has been one of the biggest disappointments annually and a long-running joke in college football. But it's impossible to ignore the talent on the roster, especially in 2023.

Quinn Ewers gets the Week 1 start after flashing early and struggling late in 2022 due to a nagging injury. Behind him are two very talented arms, Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy. The receiving room might be the country's best and is bolstered by immediate-impact player AD Mitchell.

Outside of a very difficult game at Alabama, Texas gets a favorable schedule, avoiding inbound Cincinnati and UCF, and incumbent Oklahoma State.

It's going to drive Big 12 traditionalists insane, but the likelihood of either Texas or Oklahoma (or both) making it to Arlington in their final year with the conference is high.

Projected wins: 9.6

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines

Will Ohio State take back the Big Ten eventually? Almost certainly. But with Michigan returning QB JJ McCarthy, the entire coaching staff, the nation's best running back room, a terrific offensive line, and the sixth-most production nationally, it probably won't be this year.

The back-to-back Big Ten champions host Ohio State in Ann Arbor, giving them a huge leg-up in getting a spot in Indianapolis. The Big Ten is one of a few conferences holding onto their divisions (at least for now), meaning that Week 13 rivalry game will determine a member in the conference championship.

Michigan is here and they're here to stay. Coming off a second-straight CFP appearance, they're locked and loaded to make it a three-peat.

Projected wins: 10.5

Conference-USA: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Despite entertaining the transfer portal, 4,000-yard QB Austin Reed returns to Western Kentucky. They replace OC Ben Arbuckle with assistant Drew Hollingshead, a longtime disciple of Mike Leach and the air raid system.

Like Tulane, WKU seriously benefits from conference realignment, which sends six schools to the American – the last six C-USA champions. Against the incumbent teams, the Hilltoppers are 13-1 in the last two seasons (0-3 against the departures).

Standing in between WKU and the conference championship are three teams with a winning record in 2022, two independents incoming, and two FCS teams transitioning to the FBS.

Projected wins: 7.9

MAC: Toledo Rockets

According to recruiting rankings and respected industry power ratings, Toledo should be a runaway favorite to win the MAC every year. They return veteran QB Dequan Finn and the entire coaching staff alongside one of the Group of Five's best defensive secondaries. They also added a top-15 transfer player in edge rusher Travion Ford.

The Rockets play the nation's third-easiest schedule – including Illinois, FCS Texas Southern, San Jose State, and UMass out of conference. With this kind of setup, anything other than another MAC title would be an unequivocal failure.

That said, the MAC has the most variability of any conference given the margin between its projected top team (Toledo) and its projected bottom team (Kent State). On most given nights, the favorite is no more than seven points better than the underdog. So, while Toledo should be the conference favorite, there's little room for error.

Projected wins: 8.5

Mountain West: Fresno State Bulldogs

It's tough to replace an NFL-caliber QB, a 1,000-yard rusher, and four of their top five receiving options from a season ago. But on the other side of the football, Fresno State is all business. They return 71% of defensive production from 2022, headlined by a very strong secondary.

UCF transfer Mikey Keene comes in to assume the QB1 duties and the Bulldogs benefit from playing one of the 15 easiest schedules in the country. Their biggest competition is Boise State – whom Fresno plays in Week 10 at home – but they avoid Air Force and play a favorable non-conference schedule.

In four seasons under Jeff Tedford, Fresno State won 10 games three times and won bowl games all three of those years. He's a winner and the Mountain West is a conference for the taking.

Projected wins: 8.6

Pac-12: Washington Huskies

The Pac-12 is shaping out to be an absolute gauntlet in 2023. USC returns Heisman winner Caleb Williams and another slew of top-flight transfers. Utah is the two-time reigning champion and returns their QB and entire coaching staff. Oregon returns Heisman hopeful Bo Nix. UCLA and Oregon State are both 9-win potential teams.

Washington returns 74% of production from an offense that scored the second-most points per drive in 2022. Michael Penix Jr. is one of the preseason Heisman favorites and two 1,000-yard receivers – Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan – return. In 2023, they should be just as effective scoring as last year.

There's a lot that goes into this conference, but it's tough to three-peat. It's also hard to beat a team twice in the same season and Washington handles USC, Oregon, and Utah in-season. A good QB and coaching staff go a long way in college football.

Projected wins: 8.9

SEC: LSU Tigers

Upset alert! As mentioned, it's hard to repeat, especially in the SEC. Georgia and their historic 2021 championship roster didn't win the SEC, instead losing to Alabama. All the top teams – Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee – must replace their QBs. LSU does not.

Jayden Daniels returns to Baton Rouge as does one of the nation's top defenses led by Maason Smith and Harold Perkins. The Tigers also signed 247Sports' third-best transfer class including two Day 1 starters in the secondary. While they have to go through Alabama for a second-straight year, this does appear to be the season to take the Tide down.

LSU is a juggernaut in waiting, and Brian Kelly already proved he can hang with the SEC in his first year.

Projected wins: 8.8

Sun Belt: Troy Trojans

Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood departed for Tulane, but the Trojans return the foundation of a defense that ranked 10th nationally in points per drive surrendered. Last season, Troy throttled Coastal Carolina to win the Sun Belt title and is primed to repeat.

They play just one conference game on the road against a projected top-100 team and have an exceedingly winnable back half of the schedule. Defense and special teams won Troy a lot of games last year, but returning sixth-year QB Gunnar Watson doesn't hurt.

The Sun Belt is a tough league to win – let alone twice in a row – but Jon Sumrall is one of the Group of Five's best coaches. He turns one-score games into wins. In a league like the Sun Belt, that's a recipe for a title.

Projected wins: 8.8

Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!

Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or in the Apple App Store.