TCU Horned Frogs Vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds, Betting Picks: College Football Week 6
The TCU Horned Frogs (3-2, 1-1) visit the Iowa State Cyclones (2-3, 1-1) in Week 6 of the college football season. TCU suffered a tough loss last week to West Virginia while Iowa State was beaten soundly by Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs flexed their muscles in this game last year, winning 62-10, but Iowa State won the three previous meetings. TCU is a 6.5-point favorite, with a 67.8% implied probability to win. The over/under is 52.5 points.
TCU at Iowa State kicks off Saturday, Oct. 7, at 7:00 p.m. CT on FS2. You can also catch the game on 88.7 FM KTCU.
Need a quick rundown on how betting odds work?
Sep 30, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris (4) rolls out to pass against West Virginia Mountaineers defensive lineman Tomiwa Durojaiye (3) in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
TCU At Iowa State Pick Against The Spread
This season, TCU is 0-2 outright as a double-digit favorite against FBS opponents (Colorado, West Virginia). It's been a frustrating start to 2023 for the national runners up. Regression was expected after returning just 56% of team production from last year, but the Horned Frogs have fallen short of expectations.
Against West Virginia, it was self-inflicted mistakes and missed field goals that sunk TCU. Short-yardage play calling has been a major issue and could be pointed to for both losses on the season. This season, Iowa State is behind in turnovers (-1.5 on the season), but only allows a conversion on 36% of opposing third downs. Play calling in short-yardage situations and in the red zone must improve for TCU.
With this number butting up on a key betting figure, -7 (14% of college football games in the last five years end in seven points), those looking to back TCU would be wise to bet the -6.5. I lean the points with TCU, but I'm not personally placing a wager on this point spread.
TCU At Iowa State Over/Under Pick
The past few weeks have been profitable betting under the point total in TCU games. In fact, we're 3-0 in the last three games betting under! The lone game this season to exceed its over/under was Week 1 against Colorado, a team that ran breakneck pace and pushed the ball to their playmakers on the perimeter.
The market was slow to react to TCU's defensive prowess and stagnation on offense. This week, there may be value in betting the over.
Iowa State has a stigma of being a defensive juggernaut, allowing just 13 points per game through their first three games. But in their last two, they allowed 27 to a depleted Oklahoma State roster and 50 to Oklahoma. TCU runs the third-fastest pace in the country (20.9 seconds/play) while Iowa State runs the 94th (27.5 seconds/play).
52 points is an important figure in football totals betting. Since we're on the plus side of that number, I'm instead looking to TCU's team total, which is set at 30.5 points. My play this week is on TCU to exceed their 30.5 team total points.
Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com. So far on the season, he is 4-2 in TCU betting picks found in these articles.
Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!
Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay updated on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or the Apple App Store.
