What Saturday’s Big 12 Games Mean for TCU as the Next Four Come Into Focus

TCU left Orlando with the kind of loss that can fool you if you only look at certain numbers.

The Frogs outgained UCF 343–266. They possessed the football almost six minutes longer. They held a team that came in wanting to run the football to 106 yards on 33 carries.

And they lost 21–13.

That's a pretty good reminder heading into the next month that football games aren't won by collecting the most impressive statistics. They're won by winning the situations that actually decide them.

That's what stood out to me when I looked around the Big 12 Saturday and then looked at TCU's next four conference opponents. BYU, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas all present something different. After what happened in Orlando, some of those things should have TCU's attention immediately.

Our Big 12 football power rankings after Week 3 showed where these teams stood coming into the weekend. The latest results tell us more about how they can win—or lose.

BYU: Can TCU Become the Trap?

BYU didn't play Saturday.

That might be the most important part of this matchup.

The No. 9 Cougars are 3–0 and coming to Fort Worth after an open week. Before the break, they put up 559 yards against Colorado State, including 332 on the ground. LJ Martin accounted for 176 rushing yards and three touchdowns on only 15 carries.

So this isn't a team that needed an extra week to figure out who it is. What the extra week gives BYU is time to figure out TCU.

After three games, coaches finally have enough film to conduct a real self-scout. You start identifying tendencies. What are we showing on certain downs? What formations are producing certain calls? Where are opponents starting to attack us?

Then you get an extra week to work on it.

That's why I don't completely buy the easy version of the trap-game conversation. Yes, BYU has Iowa State and Notre Dame waiting after TCU. But the Cougars also had an open week to make sure they're not looking past the Frogs.

TCU can't control any of that anyway. What it can control is what BYU finds when it gets to Fort Worth.

TCU doesn't need BYU to fall into a trap.

The Frogs need to become one.

Baylor: Don't Let Them Dictate the Down

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten (11) carries the ball against Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Randon Fontenette (7) during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Five sacks.

Thirteen tackles for loss.

Eight punts.

Two fourth-down stops.

Those numbers from Baylor's 23–13 win over Colorado all connect.

Negative plays change football games because they change what an offense is allowed to call next. Second-and-6 and second-and-12 might only be six yards apart on the field, but they're completely different situations for a play caller.

Get an offense behind the chains enough and eventually you're facing third-and-long. Now the defensive line can pin its ears back. The pressure package gets bigger. The offense's playbook gets smaller.

That's when a defense starts dictating the down.

Baylor did that to Colorado. And this wasn't one good Saturday. The Bears have held all four opponents they've played this season below 20 points.

Now look at what TCU is bringing into that matchup. The Frogs just rushed for 33 yards at UCF and allowed four sacks. That's why those Baylor numbers matter. As JD Andress wrote in his immediate thoughts after the UCF loss, the offensive problems deserve attention before the next Big 12 test.

TCU and Baylor both have an open week before they meet in Waco. Both staffs will get extra time. What I'm interested in is what TCU fixes with it.

Because if you're constantly playing behind the chains against a defense that's already shown it can create negative plays, eventually you're letting that defense decide what kind of football you're allowed to play.

West Virginia: Don't Let 41–24 Fool You

West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State 41–24 Saturday.

Here's the weird part.

The Mountaineers ran for 334 yards.

Cam Cook ran for 193. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. added 102 and three touchdowns.

Usually, you tell me a team ran for 334 yards and I'm going to assume it controlled the football game.

West Virginia didn't.

Oklahoma State put up 609 yards, including 389 through the air, and 359 of those yards came after halftime.

That's where this game gets interesting for TCU. The Cowboys started finding explosive plays in the passing game. They hit completions of 27 and 40 yards on one touchdown drive. They hit another for 48 yards to set up a score, then another 48-yarder after West Virginia turned it over on downs.

Wyatt Young finished with eight catches for 192 yards.

That's what I'd be studying if I'm TCU. Not because Oklahoma State gave TCU some magic blueprint that automatically works against West Virginia. Because when somebody puts 609 yards on an opponent you're about to play, you better figure out what they found.

Where did the coverage break down? What created those opportunities? Were there formations, routes or tendencies that kept putting defenders in bad positions? And does anything TCU already does offensively translate?

Last week, I looked at the problems TCU's Big 12 opponents were beginning to reveal. West Virginia's quarterback run game was one of them. Saturday added a question about its pass defense.

That's the value of watching another team expose something. You don't copy its game plan.

You figure out whether it found a problem you can attack, too.

Kansas: If Anybody Should Understand, It's TCU

Sep 19, 2026; London, ENG; Kansas Jayhawks wide receiver Nik McMillan (5) runs with the ball against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the second half at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kansas didn't play Saturday, but its last game looks a whole lot more interesting after what just happened to TCU.

Kansas lost 24–17 to Arizona State. The Jayhawks outgained the Sun Devils 414–228. They had 22 first downs to Arizona State's 13. They held the Sun Devils to 3.5 yards per play.

And they lost.

Sound familiar?

Kansas turned the football over three times. It went 0-for-3 on fourth down. Arizona State returned the opening kickoff of the second half 100 yards for a touchdown. Another Sun Devils touchdown came after a Kansas fumble gave them the football at the 2-yard line.

That's what I mean when I talk about winning situations instead of winning statistics.

The offense, defense and special teams aren't playing three separate football games. Turn the ball over at your own 2 and your defense inherits somebody else's mistake. Give up a kickoff return for a touchdown and your offense never gets a possession. Fail on fourth down and field position can change instantly.

Those things don't always show up when somebody looks at total yardage Sunday morning. They damn sure show up on the scoreboard.

TCU should understand that better than anybody right now. The Frogs outgained UCF. They possessed the football longer. They held UCF's running game down. And they still flew home with a loss.

Kansas has Middle Tennessee, Utah, Kansas State and Baylor before coming to Fort Worth on Halloween, so we'll know a lot more about the Jayhawks by then. But we already know enough not to judge that football team by its 1–2 record.

TCU just learned the same lesson about itself.

What the Next Four Really Mean

That's what I see when I look at these next four games.

Not four rankings.

Not four records.

Four different ways a football game can get away from you.

BYU gets an extra week to prepare and brings a team capable of punishing mistakes. Baylor can create enough negative plays to start deciding what you're allowed to call. West Virginia just showed that you can run for 334 yards and still lose control of a game somewhere else. Kansas dominated a box score and gave away the situations that mattered most.

TCU doesn't have to imagine what that last one feels like. It just lived it.

And that's probably the biggest lesson coming out of Saturday.

One problem doesn't have to beat you. One turnover doesn't have to beat you. One protection problem doesn't have to beat you. One bad special-teams play doesn't have to beat you.

But when you let one problem start infecting everything else, that's when it becomes a loss.

TCU has four very different opponents coming.

Before worrying about solving all four of them, the Frogs need to make sure they're not helping any of them solve TCU.

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