What The Stats Say About The TCU Horned Frogs Matchup vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Does the analytics give the advantage to the TCU Horned Frogs or the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Friday night showdown?

Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; TCU Horned Frogs safety Bud Clark (21) intercepts a pass and returns it for a touchdown in the second quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs have one of the most highly anticipated matchups in the Big 12 this weekend as they prepare to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Friday night showdown.

With it being a conference game and the Horned Frogs' first one of the season, the Big 12's new injury report will make it easier to see which players will be out and how they will affect the matchup this week between the two lethal offenses.

What do the stats and analytics say about the Horned Frogs' chances to leave Arizona with a win in the Friday night primetime game?

Pick Your Poison

This is a two-part problem and answer for the Horned Frogs. On one end, they have been great at containing the run. They rank 13th in the country in opponents' rushing yards per game with 72, mainly because opponents are rushing on them the 12th fewest times in FBS, averaging 27.5 rushes per game.

This is partly because they have been gashed through the air, something uncharacteristic for Horned Frog fans, who are accustomed to having one of the best secondaries in the conference. After three games, though, they find themselves in the bottom half of nearly every category defending the pass. They are 95th in opponents' yards per pass (7.8), 75th in pass yards per game (231), and 72nd in completion percentage (62.71%).

Another part of this is that the Frogs' offense, led by Josh Hoover, has been one of the most efficient groups in the country. It took until their Week Four matchup against SMU for the offense to play their starters the entire length of the game. Hoover leads the nation in touchdowns and yards per game, and the offense is eighth in the country with 331.5 yards per game through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. The Sun Devils have prided themselves on the running game this season. They are 14th in the country in rush play percentages, choosing a ground attack 62.22 percent of the time. The Frogs are relatively untested in that area of the game, but if they use that to control the time of possession and keep Hoover off the field, it might be effective.

If Dillingham chooses to air the ball out against the struggling Frogs' passing defense, it could turn into a classic Big 12 offensive race. Based on what they have accomplished this season, the Frogs would be favored. Both teams will be tasked with picking what to stop and how to attack, and neither will be easy.