What The Stats Say About The TCU Horned Frogs vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats

What do the analytics say about the TCU Horned Frogs' home opener?

Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Kevorian Barnes (2) scores a touchdown as safety Austin Jordan (1) celebrates and North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Thaddeus Dixon (1) defends in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs will finally step back onto the gridiron for only the second time this season and get a tune-up game against FCS opponent Abilene Christian. This is a far cry from the North Carolina Tar Heels they played in week one, and from long-time rivals the SMU Mustangs that they will host next week.

Nonetheless, the game will still serve as a benchmark for the rest of the season. Going off of one game of stats, paired with an inferior FCS opponent, makes for running the analytics of this matchup a little tougher, not allowing a true picture for what can happen.

With that said, what do the analytics show for the Frogs home opener?

Continuing Their Run On Defense

Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) looks to pass in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

After the opening drive from the Tar Heels, the Horned Frogs looked to be picking up where they left off in 2024, struggling to limit explosive plays and being walked down the field by the run, allowing over 11 yards per rush. They allowed a quick score to put them in a 7-0 deficit early, but they would rebound quickly.

They would not give the Tar Heels' defense any room to breathe, bring a suffocating pass rush, and fly all over the field at every level to take away any sort of semblance of rhythm. Now, in week three of the season, they face a Wildcats defense that has not thrown a receiving touchdown through their first two games of the season.

Perhaps their most impressive stat after their single game this season, is they rank number one in average third down distance, forcing opponents to have to convert for more than 10-plus yards. That will play exceptionally well for them against the Wildcats who have struggled to throw the ball this season, and with the effectiveness of the Frogs defense, should create nightmare scenarios for them.

Their opponents only find success on rushing plays, 19.2 percent of the time, which ranks second in the country. Overall, they only find success 30 percent of the time, which ranks 14th. Sure, the sample size is smaller than you would like, but being able to convert those numbers against a coaching staff comprised of NFL coaches deserves its flowers.

The numbers might only become more skewed, after finding more success against the Wildcats, that might make their numbers look otherworldly, but more importantly than that, will serve as a tone setter before the final Iron Skillet Matchup.

The Horned Frogs will host the Wildcats Sept. 13, at 7 p.m. CT.