TCU Football Opponent Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils

Last year's worst-to-first success story reloads with a swath of talent. TCU faces the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 5 – what can Frog fans expect from this team in 2025?

Nov 30, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (0) celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during the Territorial Cup at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

466. TCU vs ASU. . 8pm CT. Fox. Friday, September 26. 0-0. 512. 0-0

The surprise of 2024, the Arizona State Sun Devils, reload for another season of Big 12 contention after securing their first conference title since 1996. Behind a talented rising quarterback, energetic head coach, and a slew of all-conference players, the Sun Devils enter 2024 as the Big 12 favorite. Returning so many key pieces to a Big 12 title-winning and College Football Playoff team makes Arizona State dangerous on a national level. But can they repeat the miraculous outcome we saw in 2024?

Fans of the TCU Horned Frogs get a close-up look at Arizona State in Week 5, as TCU travels to Tempe. Expect the Frogs to be underdogs in the matchup. TCU at Arizona State kicks off on Friday, Sept. 26, from Mountain America Stadium in Tempe.

To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall.

2025 Arizona State Football At A Glance

• Name: Arizona State Sun Devils
• Stadium: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ (capacity: 53,599)
• Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (3rd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Marcus Arroyo
• Defensive coordinator: Brian Ward
• 2024 record: 11-3 (7-2, Big 12 champions)

Arizona State Football In 2024: Worst To First

Arizona State celebrate together after Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Texas Longhorns play the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, Jan. 1, 2025. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kenny Dillingham hit reset after just one year with Arizona State. Coming off a 3-9 debut, he hired two new coordinators and brought in a freshman quarterback. 2023 was so dire that he relied on a running back to play wildcat QB at times. Dillingham brought on 30 transfers for a 2024 campaign where expectations were few and the team was looking just to get back on a positive track.

The result? Arizona State won 11 games, the Big 12 championship, secured a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and was inches away from advancing to the CFP semifinals.

How in the world did ASU manage to get there? Leavitt turned out to be a confident and efficient youngster, WR Jordyn Tyson stepped up to All-America level, and that wildcat QB–Cam Skattebo–rushed for over 1,700 yards. The defense finished inside the top 50 nationally in points per drive allowed and the Sun Devils went 6-2 in one-score games.

The most exciting thing about 2024 is that a large chunk of that team returns in 2025. It was truly a worst-to-first turnaround for the Big 12 newcomers.

Arizona State Sun Devils Offense Preview

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) in action during the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Leavitt was one of the most pleasant surprises last season and he's back as just a sophomore. He completed nearly 62% of his passes, throwing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Leavitt flashed immense playmaking ability in big-time spots, adding 443 rushing yards and five scores.

Four of ASU's five starting offensive linemen return, led by All-Big 12 selection Ben Coleman at center. It's one of the best and most experienced OL units in the conference. Tyson also returns after suffering a late-season collarbone injury. Leavitt will have to find a couple other wideouts to connect with, although TE Chamon Metayer earned all-conference honors last year (306 yards, 5 TDs).

Of course, replacing Skattebo is a massive undertaking. Not only does he vacate over 1,700 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, he offered a significant threat in the receiving game (and passing!). In total, ASU must find over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 24 TDs.

Army transfer Kanye Udoh is a good start in finding that production. The all-conference AAC selection rushed for over 1,100 yards at West Point and offers a similar downhill playing style and size (6-foot-0, 220 pounds). Junior Kyson Brown offers a strong second option, rushing for 448 yards last year (4.8 YPC).

Whether Udoh can completely take over a game remains to be seen. Don't underestimate the vacancy a player like Skattebo leaves in the offense.

Arizona State Sun Devils Defense Preview

Nov 30, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Xavion Alford (2) against the Arizona Wildcats during the Territorial Cup at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State took a moneyball approach to its defense last year and it paid off. Safety Xavion Alford was a journeyman and a previous unknown (just 35 career tackles and sat out 2023), as was tackle C.J. Fite (15 career tackles). Both turned into All-Big 12 players. New Mexico transfer LB Keyshaun Elliot logged 111 tackles in the Mountain West and followed it up with 98 more last season and an all-conference selection. Ultimately, it's a testament to DC Brian Ward.

Eleven of ASU's top twelve tacklers from last season return, including Elliot and Alford (183 tackes between them). One of the two vacant starting positions will be filled by Purdue DB Kyndrich Breedlove (3 INT), a talented and experienced fill-in.

Defenses, in general, take two seasons to fully install; they take much longer to develop than offenses. Last year was about installing the offense and players overproduced, leading to a 43rd finish in points per drive. Improvement could be seen later in the year. ASU held Kansas State to 14 points, BYU to 23 points, Iowa State to 10 non-garbage time points, and Texas to 24 points in regulation.

This year, the players know the defense. I anticipate Arizona State progressing to a top-30 defense this season with talent littered throughout this lineup.

Best Case Scenario For Arizona State

Nov 9, 2024; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (0) celebrates a touchdown pass against the UCF Knights during the second half at Mountain America Stadium, Home of the ASU Sun Devils. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

It's hard to repeat an 11-win, conference-winning, and playoff-contending season, especially for a program with the football pedigree of Arizona State (.538 win percentage since 2000 and zero conference championships before 2024). But the reality is, Arizona State is expected to again contend for the Big 12 title.

The Sun Devils are, as of the preseason, expected to be favored in every game but one–Week 7 at Utah (about +1.5 underdogs)–with two true tossups (Week 4 at Baylor and Week 10 at Iowa State). I project six one-score games this season. A well-coached team with playmaking at QB can be expected to win more than 50% of those toss-ups and the majority of one-score games they're favored in. By this logic, ASU has an 11-win ceiling.

Of course, that's not how forecasting wins works, but their average wins this season lines around 8.5. Ask an ASU fan in 2022 and 2023 if they'd enjoy a theoretical team ceiling between 9-3 and 11-1.

Phil Steele forecasts Arizona State tied for fourth in the Big 12. Sportsbooks make ASU the favorite (slim, ~15.4%) and I agree with that assessment a bit more. There's far more reason for optimism than pessimism should ASU reach 80% of its potential.

Worst Case Scenario For Arizona State

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham talks to his team during the first quarter against Texas of the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On the other hand, losing such a prolific player can really hurt a team. And in the Big 12, year-to-year outcomes vary so wildly that there are false floors for teams (just see last year for Oklahoma State and Utah!). There's a strong possibility that Udoh, Brown, and others can't make up the 2,000 scrimmage yards and 24 touchdowns leaving with Skattebo and that too much offensive responsibility falls on the shoulders and legs of Leavitt.

There's also a possibility that another pass catcher doesn't threaten enough to free up Tyson. A good contested pass catcher, Tyson simply won't be as effective with double teams and brackets all year long. My biggest worry for the whole team is the added responsibility for Leavitt and that could take the rythym away from the offense.

The other reasons to forecast regression are (a) historical outlier seasons almost always point to a regression to the mean and, (b) a 6-2 record in one-score games likely comes down to earth. Those six projected one-score games could end up at 3-3, 2-4, or 1-5 (the last outcome being the most likely to even out an expected 50/50 one-score game record). So, finish 3-3 in one-score games and tackle your toughest opponents–Mississippi State, Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State–on the road and you finish 7-5.

Big 12 teams always carry an element of who-the-hell-knows and chaos, so I can't in my right mind say there's no path to a massive regression. But it's far, far more likely that this team is very good again.

2025 Arizona State Sun Devils Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 30	Northern Arizona (FCS)
Sept. 6	at Mississippi State
Sept. 13	Texas State
Sept. 20	at Baylor
Sept. 26 (FRI)	TCU
Oct. 4	BYE
Oct. 11	at Utah
Oct. 18	Texas Tech
Oct. 25	Houston
Nov. 1	at Iowa State
Nov. 8	BYE
Nov. 15	West Virginia
Nov. 22	at Colorado
Nov. 28 (FRI)	Arizona

TCU Opponent Previews

• Week One - North Carolina
• Week Three - SMU

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