TCU Football Opponent Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina football has a new leader – perhaps you've heard. Let's preview TCU's Week 1 opponent, the UNC Tar Heels.

Dec 14, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head football coach Bill Belichick is introduced during half time at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

9/1 UNC. 441. 0-0. 466. ESPN. September 1. 0-0. . 7pm CT

This winter, the North Carolina Tar Heels football program made a coaching change. Despite landing one of the biggest splash hires in FBS history, inking Patriots legend Bill Belichick, the news cycle this summer just about buried the hire. Rather, Belichick's love interest dominated headlines for...various reasons. If you're here to read about Jordon Hudson's impact on Tar Heel football this fall, well, this article isn't for you.

Rather, let's talk about this Tar Heel football squad and what the TCU Horned Frogs might expect come Labor Day. TCU visits North Carolina to open their 2025 season on Monday, Sept. 1, at 7 p.m. CT. The game headlines ESPN's college football coverage, being broadcast on the flagship station. You can catch the game in person at Kenan Memorial Stadium (and I strongly recommend a visit to Chapel Hill!).

To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall.

2025 UNC Football At A Glance

• Name: North Carolina Tar Heels
• Stadium: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC (capacity: 50,500)
• Head coach: Bill Belichick (24 years exp. as HC, 1st season in college)
• Offensive coordinator: Freddie Kitchens
• Defensive coordinator: Steve Belichick
• 2024 record: 6-7 (3-5 ACC)

North Carolina Football History

Nov 23, 2024; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown looks on during the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

UNC is known for its basketball and baseball more than its football. However, Chapel Hill has seen its fair share of success on the gridiron, especially of late. The Tar Heels reached the AP Top 25 in seven of its last 11 seasons and the top 15 in six of its last 10 seasons. Historically, three NFL Hall of Famers donned Carolina Blue: Lawrence Taylor, Julius Peppers, and Chris Hanburger. Eight others grace the walls of the College Football Hall of Fame, most recently two-time coach Mack Brown (pictured, above).

The formula is fairly simple for UNC: when the Tar Heels roster a strong QB, they tend to win more games than not (duh). Recently, UNC put Sam Howell and Mitchell Trubisky in the NFL, to mixed pro results. However, the ceiling for Carolina is fairly fixed – UNC breached 10 wins just once since 1998 (2015, 11-3).

UNC ended in the Duke's Mayo Bowl in two of the last four seasons and last reached a New Year's Six bowl in 2001 (Peach Bowl). Unlike their basketball brethren, Carolina football is far from a "blue blood" program.

Currently, North Carolina owns a 3-0 all-time record over TCU. The most recent result played out in 1997, where the Tar Heels beat the Horned Frogs 31-10 in Fort Worth. Prior to '97, TCU and UNC met on the football field in 1994 (UNC won, 27-17) and 1940 (UNC won, 21-14).

2024: Closing a chapter

Oct 12, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) runs for a touchdown in the third quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Expectations in 2024 were tempered quickly. Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson looked to lead UNC to its first 10-win season in a decade, but suffered an unfortunate and very serious injury. Johnson, a redshirt senior, broke his leg in the opening game against Minnesota, ending his season and maybe sidelining him through 2025.

Instead, Jacolby Criswell took the reins with limited results (15 TDs, 6 INT). The star of the show was now-NFL back Omarion Hampton (pictured), who rushed for an ACC-leading 1,660 yards and 15 TDs. The offense fared just fine, scoring 29.8 points per game (45th). Defensively, UNC struggled, allowing 29.6 points per game despite rostering two studs in LBs Kaimon Rucker and Power Echols. The unit itself improved, but bottomed out in Week 4 when it allowed a comical 70 points to James Madison (UNC lost, 70-50).

The Tar Heels finished 6-6 in the regular season behind a 1-3 ACC record in one-score games. Brown was fired and his last game as head coach came in another wild finish against NC State. Offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens coached UNC to an uninspired 27-14 loss to UConn in the Fenway Bowl.

North Carolina Tar Heels Offense Preview

Sep 28, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Gio Lopez (7) waits for the snap against the LSU Tigers during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

These North Carolina Tar Heels are last year's North Carolina Tar Heels in name and uniform only. To find a prominent player for UNC to headline this section, I had to delve into their transfer haul. South Alabama QB Gio Lopez headlines the group. Lopez is a dynamic dual-threat who projects very highly this season for the Tar Heels. Both fortunate and unfortunate, TCU is the first line of defense for Lopez as he makes the jump to Power Conference football.

Lopez returns an experienced crew of pass catchers, namely receivers Kobe Paysour and Jordan Shipp (479 combined receiving yards in 2024). UNC returns none of its three leading receivers from last season, but did retain Kitchens at OC. Three starting offensive linemen return, though the Tar Heels' top lineman departed.

Of course, a huge chunk of production has to be made up for the departure of Hampton. Over 2,000 scrimmage yards leave with him. Rising sophomore Davion Gause returns with 67 attempts and 326 yards on the ground; he could make a significant jump this season behind an experienced offensive line.

The Tar Heels' coaching staff is comprised of NFL experience. How this offense looks is seriously unknown. Lopez presents the opportunity for a unique college offense, but will Kitchens orchestrate one? Or will the staff's focus fall on preparing this team for the pros?

North Carolina Tar Heels Defense Preview

Nov 30, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Marcus Allen (29) intercepts the ball in the end zone intended for North Carolina State Wolfpack wide receiver Wesley Grimes (6) in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Few coaches in the history of football know defense like Bill Belichick. Keeping it in the family, he brings along his son, Steve Belichick, as defensive coordinator after a stint at Washington. The Huskies finished 65th in scoring defense and 76th in points per drive under Belichick the younger. While nepotism is certainly a factor, Steve has experience worthy of heading a Power Conference defense, even if the results are mixed.

Just two starters and four players with experience last year return. Linebacker Amare Campbell is the most productive of the bunch, recording 10.5 tackles for loss in his second year in Chapel Hill. Corner Marcus Allen (pictured) nabbed a pair of interceptions and defensed three additional passes.

The transfer class brings in UConn defensive lineman Pryce Yates (20.5 TFLs in the last two years) and Maryland safety Gavin Gibson (6.5 TFL, 3 INT). Like with the offense, the range of outcomes is quite large for this unit.

Typically, defenses take two seasons to really incorporate a new system. It's unlikely this unit jumps into the national top 20 this season, with a floor comparable to last season.

Best Case Scenario For North Carolina

Dec 14, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head football coach Bill Belichick is introduced during half time at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Running a college program like a professional one makes a lot of sense. After all, the FBS–particularly Power Conference schools–are straying further away from amateurism with NIL, the in-progress House bill, and potential FBS self-governance. So, why not bring in the most accomplished NFL coach of all time?

Lopez is a talented quarterback and in four of the five games Carolina projects to be an underdog in, they're only underdogs by one score. Based on aggregate preliminary preseason ratings, UNC is looking at 7.1 average wins. But flip two of those one-score games your way and the Tar Heels are looking at 9-3.

While this year may not be a Playoff year for Carolina, Belichick and his sway in the NFL could be a serious selling point for future recruits and transfers.

But for this year, given a favorable schedule (beyond TCU, UNC plays Richmond, UCF, and Charlotte in the non-conference), UNC will vie for a Holiday Bowl berth or better. 8-4 isn't unrealistic.

Worst Case Scenario For North Carolina

Aug 29, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive lineman Danny Striggow (92) makes a tackle on North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Max Johnson (14) during the first half at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

It's impossible to talk about UNC football this year without at least addressing the news cycle this spring. Belichick and Carolina absolutely monopolized headlines this offseason and very few for football reasons. The bottom line is: Belichick and his circle have been nothing but an enormous distraction – something the five-time Super Bowl-winning coach has avoided to legendary lengths throughout his career.

Personnel is also worthy of concern, both on and off the field. Lopez is a nice addition, but the UNC roster seriously lacks star power on both sides of the ball. Kitchens and Belichick the younger are both uninspired hires. NFL coaches have an extensive history of not quite clicking at the college level, a problem perhaps exacerbated by unlimited player movement.

I'm not impressed by any individual facet of this team. This year, I anticipate Carolina is a fine, not great, football team.

But the floor for this roster and coaching staff is much lower than anyone in Chapel Hill would like to admit. The Tar Heels project as one-score underdogs in four times and they project as one-score favorites in three more. Under Brown, UNC had a poor track record in one-score games. Should 2025 present another poor one-score game showing, the floor is 4-8 or 5-7.

If you're taking tallies of pros and cons, there's much more basis for concern than optimism.

2025 North Carolina Tar Heels Schedule

Date	Opponent
Sept. 1 (MON)	TCU
Sept. 6	at Charlotte
Sept. 13	Richmond (FCS)
Sept. 20	at UCF
Sept. 27	BYE
Oct. 4	Clemson
Oct. 11	BYE
Oct. 17 (FRI)	at Cal
Oct. 25	Virginia
Oct. 31 (FRI)	at Syracuse
Nov. 8	Stanford
Nov. 15	at Wake Forest
Nov. 22	Duke
Nov. 29	at NC State

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